分析师:美联储下周降息50基点的门槛较高,大幅降息弊大于利

Odaily
Sep 10, 2025

Odaily星球日报讯 InTouch Capital Markets 亚洲汇率主管 Kieran Williams 表示: “降息 50 个基点的门槛很高,可能需要核心通胀意外明显低于预期,才能给鸽派提供底气。考虑到服务价格的粘性和美联储倾向释出渐进信号,下周大幅降息似乎不太可能发生,但数据将影响市场对年底宽松路径定价的积极程度。” City Index 资深市场分析师 Matt Simpson 亦表示:“我认为,目前降息 50 个基点对市场信心的损害大于好处。此外,美联储可能会想要保住面子,不会完全屈从于特朗普的意愿。”Simpson 指出,“市场定价目前反映的是,预期未来三次会议将三度降息,美联储处于一个很好的位置,可以很好地配合这些预期,或者增加 2026 年降息的机率--而不用被迫于下周降息 50 个基点。”(金十)

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