Asia Week Ahead: Central Bank Decisions, Trade Data, and Inflation Readings

MT Newswires
Sep 15

The week ahead brings a heavy slate of interest rate decisions and trade data from across Asia, offering investors a gauge of the region's economic health.

Central banks in Indonesia, Taiwan, and Japan are set to announce rate decisions. Meanwhile, trade figures from India, Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, and New Zealand will provide fresh signals on regional trade momentum.

Inflation reports are also due in Japan and India.

China, meanwhile, releases a flurry of macro data, while Australia's labor market indicators will be in focus.

Here's the day-by-day breakdown of key events in Asia this week.

MONDAY, Sept. 15

The week kicked off with a number of key releases from China that markets will be gauging to determine the state of the economy.

Among the releases were the industrial production report, which showed the world's second largest economy recorded a 5.2% year-on-year rise in industrial output during August, lower than the previous month's 5.7% growth. The figure also missed expectations of a 5.7% climb, as predicted by analysts surveyed by Reuters.

Other key figures included retail sales which slowed to 3.4% year-on-year growth in August from the 3.7% recorded in July; urban unemployment, which ticked up 0.1 of a percentage from July to 5.3% in August; and fixed asset investments, which stood at 32.6 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, up 0.5% from the previous year.

China also released the house price index, offering an insight into new home prices across 70 cities that markets use as a benchmark. New prices dropped 2.5% year-on-year in August, slowing from a fall of 2.8% the month prior.

After a weak showing in July, markets were awaiting August pricing data to determine whether a recent slowdown was an outlier or the start of a trend, economists at ING said.

Hong Kong and India will join China in reporting industrial production and unemployment figures, respectively.

India is also due to report its August wholesale inflation figures and balance of trade stats.

Lastly, New Zealand's BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell to 47.5 in August from 48.9 in July. A reading below the 50-point mark points to contraction.

TUESDAY, Sept. 16

Tuesday will be relatively light on releases, with Hong Kong reporting unemployment rates for the month of August.

Trading Economics expects the unemployment rate in Hong Kong to fall to 3.6% in August from the 3.7% recorded in July.

WEDNESDAY, Sept. 17

Indonesia's central bank will convene for its interest rate decision, with economists at ING expecting Bank Indonesia to leave its policy rate unchanged at 5%.

The central bank is likely to seek clarity on fiscal expansion before changing rates, especially with the swearing in of a new finance minister who will look to recast next year's spending plans, ING said.

ING economists said they expected Bank Indonesia to deliver another 50 basis point of rate cuts by the first quarter of 2026.

Meanwhile, both Singapore and Japan will release their balance of trade figures for August, with the former also reporting non-oil exports figures and second-quarter unemployment rates.

Observers expect Japan's trade deficit to widen to 513.6 billion yen from the 118.4 billion yen deficit recorded in July, according to figures compiled by Trading Economics. The deficit is likely to underscore another month of export declines, while imports are likely to fall due to lower global commodity prices, ING said.

In August, Bank of Japan Policy Board member Junko Nakagawa noted that while Japan's economy was recovering moderately, exports and industrial production faced near-term pressure due to front-loading effects and reactionary declines from tariff hikes.

Lastly, the Westpac consumer confidence report for the third quarter is due in New Zealand.

THURSDAY, Sept. 18

Taiwan's central bank will convene for its interest rate decision, with markets widely pricing no change in the lending rate.

It could be until at least December before the CBC decides to ease rates from the current 2%, economists at Barclays said, the Wall Street Journal reported.

New Zealand will report its second quarter GDP figures, and the Bank of New Zealand is forecasting economic activity to decline 0.2% year-on-year with manufacturing and construction sectors as laggards.

Meanwhile, Australia will share key labor statistics, including unemployment rates, participation rate, and other key figures for August.

The National Australia Bank expects unemployment to rise 4.3% in August from the 4.24% in July, likely reflecting some catch up for past understatement rather than a renewed trend, it said.

However, some economists are concerned unemployment could continue ticking upwards over the coming months as the private sector hesitates from taking on employees due to uncertainty in the global economy, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Lastly, Japan will release its machine orders report for July.

FRIDAY, Sept. 19

Markets will await Japan's monetary policy decision. Amid continued weak exports, The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates at 0.5%, economists at ING predicted.

Japan is also due to release August inflation rates the same day. While consumer price inflation is expected to ease to 2.9% year-on-year, core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, should stay above 3%, ING economists said.

The August inflation reading should support a potential BoJ rate hike in October, the economists added.

The National Australia Bank meanwhile said that macro data supported "some further normalization in interest rates" in Japan, but "the political backdrop remains a complication factor" after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's decision to step down.

Elsewhere, New Zealand and Malaysia will release trade figures for August.

Trading Economics is forecasting New Zealand's trade deficit to narrow to NZ$400 million from the NZ$578 million recorded a month prior.

SATURDAY, Sept. 20

The week rounds off with China releasing its one-year and five-year loan prime rates, with Trading Economics predicting no change.

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