财通证券表示海外方面通胀侧仍然企稳叠加之前非农弱势市场降息预期延续预期9月降息、年内降3次。国内情绪端市场情绪仍然向好、

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财通证券表示海外方面通胀侧仍然企稳叠加之前非农弱势市场降息预期延续预期9月降息、年内降3次。国内情绪端市场情绪仍然向好、回调加仓仍然积极行情已重回之前高点。展望后续:长期行情看政策有为+产业催化+海外宽松+新增资金等多重利好下行情长期趋势仍然明确;短期催化看甲骨文订单反映算力需求、联储下周有望落地降息等多重新增催化持续行情支撑仍然延续。配置方向上牛市未止虽然市场波动加大但主线龙头筹码未被抛弃维持科技+周期配置思路。一方面随着联储态度转向+就业走弱下海外流动性宽松我们前期提示的黄金已经开始表现往后关注创新药热度回升以及AI行情扩散重视拥挤度低位的恒生互联网龙头/AI应用;另一方面海外经济周期寻底+国内反内卷持续推进周期资源品龙头配置价值凸显。

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