富达国际:预期美国今年会再减息两次 未来美联储反应预测难度或加大

智通财经
Sep 18

智通财经APP获悉,富达国际环球宏观及策略资产配置部主管Salman Ahmed表示,美联储一如预期减息0.25%,将联邦基金利率目标区间降至4%至4.25%之间。展望未来,该行预期美联储今年会再减息两次,之后便会暂停减息,而美联储日后的反应将会变得更加不可预测。

美联储的声明重申,对劳动市场下行感到忧虑,也评论通胀只是“略微升温”,显示美联储已将焦点转向劳动市场,而不再担心通胀上行风险。美联储的经济预测摘要也突显了这个立场转变,并证实市场价格所反映的今年再减息两次预期。

然而,当预测2026年的利率走势时,考虑到美联储有可能自2026年5月起由新主席掌舵,便意味着减息次数有更大的可能性增加,即与维持2%通胀的目标不一致。

此外,美国财政部长贝森特等人最近的言论表明,政府希望在美联储进行更广泛的改革。所有这些消息都表明美联储未来的反应可能与以往大不相同,因此未来需要关注的不单止是政策,也需要洞察推动政策背后的政治局势。

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