智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，总体而言，维持此前观点，美联储9月重启降息并不意味着连续降息周期的开启。在中性利率上升到3%左右的水平后，当前的降息空间仅有4-5次。尽管利率期货市场、主流的预测网站仍显示10、12月可能会各降息一次，但该行认为对于降息预期仍需谨慎，特别是当前美国经济仍有韧性，且短期通胀上行风险的压力仍较大。如未有出现劳动力市场的意外下行，该行认为，年内降息可能仅有一次，且不降息的情形仍存。
美联储9月FOMC会议如期降息25基点至4.00%-4.25%区间，该行认为，此次降息仍是是一次典型的预防式降息操作：与上年9月不同，彼时因美国劳动力市场急剧恶化甚至触发“萨姆规则”大幅降息，而当前劳动力市场虽有放缓，但风险总体可控，且政策利率的限制性已较上年显著缓解。同时，当前就业降温主要源于限制移民政策导致的供需双弱格局，低失业率更多体现为一种“弱平衡”，因而大幅降息较难带来就业市场的快速改善。
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