交银国际：上调恒基地产(00012)目标价至32.68港元上调评级至“买入”

智通财经

Sep 19

智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，上调恒基地产(00012)目标价26.2%，从25.9港元升至32.68港元，上调评级至“买入”。

美联储9月17日宣布下调基准利率25个基点。根据机构共识预测，美联储将在2025年第4季再降息2次，2026年至2027年第1季再降息3次，总计将进一步降息125个基点。该行认为，降息进程将在2025年剩余时间和2026年持续，这将有利于提振香港房地产公司：1)降低利息支出;2)进一步激活房地产市场，促进房地产开发板块的销售和利润率回升;3)投资物业组合的潜在资产增值。

同时，施政报告将加速北部都会区的发展。新政策公布更有弹性土地收地和交换模式，该行认为北部都会区加快开发将有助恒地在该地区的庞大农地土地储备变现。该公司拥有约4190万平方英尺的农地土地储备，历史平均成本料每平方英尺277港元，北部都会区加速，或将为公司未来几年带来可观的潜在收益、盈利和现金流。

基于上述因素，该行相信利率进一步下行后，公司核心业务短期风险已下降，基于降息带来的市场资金流动性、资产价值提升预期、北部都会区农地可能加速变现的影响，调高对公司资产净值预测至每股65.4港元，并按折让50%计算出目标价，同时轻微上调2025-2027年利润预测以反映利息支出减少的影响。

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