金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，9月16日，《硅多晶和锗单位产品能源消耗限额》（征求意见稿）发布，规定棒状硅1/2/3级综合能耗为5/5.5/6.4kgce/kg，相比此前7月24日行业会议上透露的5/6/7.5kgce/kg进一步大幅收紧。该标准正式实施后，不符合3级标准的企业将被限期整改，逾期未改或整改后未符合2级标准的企业将被关停。根据硅业分会初步统计，中国内地多晶硅有效产能将降至约240万吨，相比已建成产能350万吨大幅减少31.4%，虽然仍超出2026年预计的需求150万吨约60%，但产能过剩程度将大幅缓解。这些产能目前绝大多数处于停产状态，同时标准发布后将有12个月过渡期，因此对短期供应的影响较小。新建产能方面，该机构预计将仅有协鑫和通威符合2级及以上标准可新增产能，未来行业新增产能将十分有限。多晶硅能耗标准的超预期收紧，该机构认为反映出政府对光伏行业“反内卷”的坚定决心，并以提高技术标准作为淘汰落后产能的主要手段。该机构继续看好光伏行业“反内卷”推进，首选能耗最低的颗粒硅龙头协鑫科技(03800/买入)。
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