【券商聚焦】中金公司:关注国内外政策走向,2027年后乙烯有望迎来拐点

金吾财讯
Sep 17

金吾财讯 | 中金公司发研报指,中国乙烯仍在扩张,未来三年拟投项目近2,500万吨。过去几年中国乙烯产能处于快速扩张周期,但至2024年乙烯当量缺口仍超2,100万吨,当量进口依存度为31%。目前乙烯行业新增产能持续,2025-2027年拟投放产能合计2,482万吨。我们预计若在建项目如期投产,至2027年底国内乙烯缺口或将基本补齐。海外产能加速退出,欧洲和日韩产能关停风险较高。全球油制乙烯产能当中,中国产能投产时间相对较晚,装置水平相对先进;而欧洲和日韩产能建成较早,位于全球成本曲线右侧,关停风险较高。海外拟在2025-2027年退出的产能或达597-830万吨,占全球产能的3-4%。当前中国乙烯仍处于扩张周期,海外产能已经面临加速退出的压力。按照全球产能投放计划,我们判断2027年后乙烯有望迎来拐点。后续国内外政策若能严控乙烯新增总量,控制各类路线的投放结构,并且重组老旧产能,或有望刺激行业拐点加速到来。

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