大摩:对内地软件行业持谨慎态度 首选北森控股(09669)

智通财经
Sep 17

智通财经APP获悉,摩根士丹利发布研报称,就内地软件行业基本面而言,该行仍保持谨慎态度,因预期内地GDP增长将放缓,且通缩压力依然存在,企业对IT投资的信心仍较低,相信要待通缩结束后1至2年才会恢复。在需求出现实质转折前,任何供应端推动的新技术趋势,都只能够促使现有的预算在市场中重新分配。

资金方面,该行认为板块在低利率环境下将跟随整体市场流动性,且有更高弹性(Beta),因主动型基金的相关配置比重极低。主题投资如AI应用、科技本土化和稳定币等,可能对股价产生显著影响,但目前该行尚未发现到可以真正扭转行业基本面的主题。

股份方面,该行强烈建议H股多于A股;行业首选为北森控股(09669),目标价10.3港元,评级“增持”,预期收入将加速增长;其次为金蝶国际(00268)、中国软件国际(00354)及金山软件(03888),目标价分别为14.2港元、6.6港元(原本5.4港元)及38港元,均予“与大市同步”评级。

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