金吾财讯 | 中远海能(01138)股价反复强势，午后涨幅扩大，并再创阶段新高，截至发稿，涨6.02%，报9.69港元，成交额3.83亿港元。消息面上，日前，摩根士丹利表示，超大型油轮(VLCC)运价市场在第四季的传统旺季来临前反弹，9月初突破6万美元，对比8月初仍在盈亏平衡点附近轻微波动，相信是由于供应紧张、装载量增加及市场积极情绪所推动。虽然全球经济增长及地缘政治局势仍存在许多不确定性，但大摩认为原油运输市场仍存在潜在上行风险，包括第四季旺季将至、更多影子船队受到制裁、购买俄罗斯石油潜在次级制裁、稳步增长的石油产量或转化为运输需求，以及潜在增长的长途运输需求。浙商证券认为，今年Q4旺季，VLCC运价有望创三年新高，业绩弹性有望释放。该行指出，供需两端剪刀差走扩，该行认为年内运价有望创本轮行情新高。需求侧受益于OPEC+持续增产，供给端一方面待交付运力有限，另一方面美欧持续制裁俄伊船队，使得整体船队供给偏紧，且需求将流向合规船队，供需剪刀差走扩，该行认为Q4旺季供需关系紧张局势将在运价端体现明显，本轮运价高点有望突破新高。
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