小摩:内地快递“反内卷”对部分企业初见成效 行业进一步整合

智通财经
Sep 24, 2025

智通财经APP获悉,摩根大通发布研报称,中国8月快递数据清楚展现中国“反内卷”运动如何重塑物流行业,监管措施以及地方物价上涨,导致包裹增长量温和,平均售价(ASP)下降收窄。

数据显示,整个快递行业去年收入同比增4%,达1190亿元人民币,但平均售价同比下降7%,表明在竞争压力下恢复定价权的持续挑战。“反内卷”措施下,圆通国际快递(06123)和A股的申通快递等企业已初显成效,即使市场份额有所变化,平均售价也呈现上升趋势。 8月行业整合进一步推进,申通快递近期收购丹鸟物流,体现行业向高端快递转型的战略态势和供给侧改革的推进。

电商行业维持韧性,线上零售额和实体商GMV均超过2025年上半年水平。同时,行业分化显现:家电和通讯设备放缓,而食品和服饰则重新出现增长,显示快消品领域的竞争正在逐渐缓和。顺丰控股(06936)包裹量增长和市场份额的提升,让该公司继续表现突出。

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