25H1奶价承压,三家牧企中报表现分化。周期演绎时间长&扰动因素少。相较于猪养殖,牛行业的补栏周期显著更长。奶肉联动,淘汰母牛价格回升显著增厚牧企利润。1、奶牛板块:供给强收缩,去化或已进入尾声!1)去化或已进入尾声。奶价下行4年,行业亏损1.5年,带来奶牛产能已去化约8%(截至25年8月),叠加三季度青贮饲料采购季临近,资金需求陡增,或将迫使资金状况不佳的牧场存栏量被动加速出清。以24年年底产能...
Source Link25H1奶价承压,三家牧企中报表现分化。周期演绎时间长&扰动因素少。相较于猪养殖,牛行业的补栏周期显著更长。奶肉联动,淘汰母牛价格回升显著增厚牧企利润。1、奶牛板块:供给强收缩,去化或已进入尾声!1)去化或已进入尾声。奶价下行4年,行业亏损1.5年,带来奶牛产能已去化约8%(截至25年8月),叠加三季度青贮饲料采购季临近,资金需求陡增,或将迫使资金状况不佳的牧场存栏量被动加速出清。以24年年底产能...
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