ChainCatcher 消息，据 XWIN Research 分析，比特币隐含波动率降至 2023 年以来最低，而 2023 年该低点曾出现在比特币从 2.9 万美元飙涨 325% 至 12.4 万美元之前，如今“暴风雨前的宁静”态势是否重现引发关注。
CryptoQuant 链上数据为此提供支撑：一是交易所储备量下降，总余额接近多年低点，表明可立即出售的比特币减少，历史上这常是需求上升时供应紧缩的先兆。
二是 MVRV 比率处于中性区间，投资者既未严重套牢也无超额利润，市场无恐慌抛售或获利了结压力，“观望”情绪浓厚；三是资金费率平衡，未过度做多或做空，与低迷波动率呼应，显示市场在积蓄能量。
这三个信号共同勾勒出了一幅一致的景象：交易所的比特币供应量正在减少，投资者持币不动，衍生品市场表现平静。尽管隐含波动率表明当前正处于多年来最为平静的阶段之一，但历史经验表明，这样的时期很少会持续下去。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.