金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，8月虽然是电商快递传统淡季，但反内卷推升行业景气。分量价来看：1）量：淡季叠加产粮区涨价，件量边际放缓。“以旧换新”阶段性退坡进一步影响社零增速，8月商品零售额、实物商品网上零售额、快递件量分别同比+3.6%/+7.1%/+12.3%；2）价：行业价格环比回升，申通与圆通价格端环比涨幅明显。往后展望，该机构认为快递板块仍存在如下预期差：1）8月仅广东、福建、义乌三地提价（件量占比约30%），且部分省份中下旬提价，该机构估计对快递总部价格提振在4-5分（排除派费影响后）。9月提价范围扩散至75%，多轮提价酝酿中，对价格与盈利提振幅度有望超预期。2）本轮快递“反内卷”范围广、力度大，整治低价竞争、维护从业者利益、规范行业发展的决心强，涨价有望持续至26年。综上，持续推荐快递板块。
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