自8月下旬杰克逊霍尔会议上特朗普鸽派转向以来，现货黄金连续五周上涨，涨幅超过10%。本轮行情的核心推手在于疲软非农引致的降息预期再定价。因此，10月3日新一期就业数据公布后的获利回吐值得关注，除此之外，来自经济基本面的利空有限。战术上，我们把每一次回调视为上车机会。原因在于：
利率端：降息叙事才启幕。特朗普年末若提名新美联储主席，势必强化白宫对联储的“政治箍咒”，更大幅度、更快速度的降息可期。
信用端：美国财政赤字已呈刚性，6%的赤字缺口或成“新常态”，债务膨胀与美元信用折价将为黄金提供长期地基。
白银近期的涨幅更是受到市场关注，目前突破$43/oz，创下近14年来的高点。从交割层面，9 月 19 日 COMEX 主力合约 SIU5 交割通知高达 13,228 张，为去年同期三倍；LBMA 隐含利率高企，现货市场紧俏风险未解，银价仍具上行动能。
（文章来源：紫金天风期货）
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