大摩：料内地豪车经销商受惠于行业整合看好中升控股(00881)及途虎-W(09690)

智通财经

Sep 22

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，内地汽车行业产能削减推动行业整合，相信豪华汽车经销商将会首先受惠;预期2025至26年经销商门店加速关店，因新车综合利润率于今年上半年已跌至低于1%，对小型经销商而言不再具吸引力，而车企亦计划在2026年底前将内地经销网络缩减10%至30%，相关整合将有利于财务状况稳健的经销商。

该行认为，中升控股(00881)等授权经销商仍将主导汽车意外维修业务，而途虎-W(09690)等独立维修店则可在保养与小型维修领域获取市场份额。撇除2020至21年受疫情影响，中升控股的维修服务毛利在2017至2024年间年均复合增长率达14%，预计未来可继续支持核心盈利。

该行相信中升控股在经历四年的下行周期后，终于迎来转折点。虽然市场忧虑其盈利持续下滑，但该行预期集团2026年盈利将同比反弹67%至40亿元人民币，由新车利润率复苏、平治和问界车型上行周期，及意外维修市场份额提高所推动。同时，资本开支需求下降，意味2026年的预期股息收益率5%仍有上行空间;目标价由15港元升至21港元，评级增持。

该行亦予途虎“增持”评级，预期公司2025至27年盈利年均复合增长率达25%，基于其应用程序用户增长与加盟店扩张;目标价由20港元升至23港元。至于美东汽车(01268)目标价由2.2港元降至2.1港元，获“与大市同步”评级。

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