PPI对股牛的信号

华尔街见闻
Sep 23, 2025

核心观点市场从未停止过对PPI和股牛相关性的讨论,但相对缺乏一个系统性观察框架。通过对中国历史上四轮牛熊复盘,我们总结得到PPI对中国股票市场的四点信号意义。PPI总指数的顶和底,基本对应股指的顶和底,相较这一市场共识性的“弱信号”,我们更关注PPI结构给出的“强信号”——有色PPI见底预示股票牛市启动,黑色PPI见顶意味着牛市结束。按上述信号推演,本轮有色PPI已见底,然黑色PPI距离见顶还有...

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