0458 GMT - Citi sees bigger-than-expected earnings for Australian gold miners ahead, after raising its own gold-price forecasts. The bank upgrades its FY 2026 earnings estimates for companies including Northern Star and Evolution Mining by 20% to 30%. As a result, it also raises its target prices for Australian gold stocks. Northern Star's target is raised to A$23.00 from A$18.00. Evolution's goes to A$10.50 from A$8.00. Those stocks trade at A$22.78 and A$10.38, respectively. Citi's top gold pick in the ASX100 is Evolution. It cites "organic growth options, asset quality and life, recent operational delivery coupled with the provision of a medium-term capex outlook/framework plus copper." (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0230 GMT - Tuas's underlying Ebitda margin could have been as high as 46% over its past fiscal year, according to its bull at Citi. Analyst William Park reckons that the Singapore-focused telecommunications provider's fiscal 2025 earnings included S$1.4 million of potential one-off costs, which covered asset disposal and most likely its ongoing acquisition of M1. Stripping out these costs, he thinks that the underlying Ebitda margin was as high as 46%, compared with the 45% reported. He reckons that the Australia-listed company could continue to beat expectations on costs. Citi keeps a buy rating and A$9.95 target price on the stock. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0135 GMT - For Mineral Resources, better debt terms are being offset by a softer lithium-price outlook, at least in the short run, say UBS analysts. In a note, the analysts say the miner's debt refinancing "signals increasing confidence." They reckon Mineral Resources can refinance its remaining bonds at roughly 7%, too. Yet UBS pares its near-term earnings per share estimates after trimming its spodumene price forecasts for this year and next. "Short term [lithium] downgrades impact near-term EPS but this is more than offset by cheaper debt in the long-term," they say. UBS keeps a neutral rating and A$43.20 target on the stock. Mineral Resources is down 1.0% at A$40.15. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0111 GMT - Near-term trading by KMD Brands remains too volatile, and the margin for error too narrow, for Forsyth Barr to have confidence that the earnings-downgrade cycle has bottomed. So, the bank keeps a neutral call on KMD's stock following its FY 2025 result. "While sales were better than expected, this was achieved through giving up gross margin in the final quarter of the year to clear inventory," analyst Paul Laxton Koraua says. "We think this was sensible, with net debt of NZ$53 million coming in below its NZ$70 million guidance." KMD's trading update for the early weeks of FY 2026 was encouraging. Still, it's not a significant trading period and Forsyth Barr says sales trends shouldn't be extrapolated for the year ahead. KMD is up 2% at NZ$0.25.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2311 GMT -- Macquarie is no longer bearish about two of Australia's biggest owners of shopping malls after taking a rosier view of property asset valuations. Macquarie upgrades Scentre and Vicinity Centres to neutral. It previously had underperform calls on both stocks. Macquarie raises estimates of the valuation of major regional malls by 10.4%, with increases to its forecasts for all other property classes. The upgrades to its asset value assumptions reflect "an improved outlook for commercial real estate income fundamentals, stabilizing asset values, improving transaction volumes, falling cost of debt and increased unlisted equity inflows," Macquarie says. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2259 GMT -- Amplitude Energy's A$150 million capital raising looks sensible to Bell Potter. That's because Amplitude's capex commitments will rise after management expanded a drilling program to support its East Coast Supply Project and signaled the potential restart of the Patricia Baleen field in southeastern Australia. Bell Potter says drilling a fourth well, specifically to target the Nestor deposit, could take ECSP capex to A$485 million-A$580 million. "We see the Nestor option further de-risking the ECSP through a portfolio effect," analyst Stuart Howe says. Bell Potter retains a buy call on Amplitude, and trims its price target by 3.4% to A$0.28/Share. Amplitude ended Wednesday at A$0.235. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2300 GMT - The sale of Deterra Royalties' gold offtake contracts returns its focus to industrial metals, differentiating the company from gold-royalty peers, Macquarie analysts say in a note. "Those looking to have exposure to the industrial metals complex for lower beta may find DRR an attractive alternative to higher operationally leveraged exposures," say the analysts. They reiterate a "neutral" rating and A$4.20 target. Deterra last traded at A$4.19. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2227 GMT -- Regal Partners's share price continues to trade well below all-time highs, despite positive operating metrics that include an 8% rise in funds under management over July-August. Bell Potter believes this may relate to the conversion of various classes of stock into ordinary shares. "There are currently 356 million ordinary shares on issue, with 13 million shares due to convert at end-September, and a further 62 million shares converting in the next few years," says analyst Marcus Barnard. Bell Potter raises its price target by 15% to A$4.10/share, and says this assumes full conversion of the outstanding stock. Regal Partners ended Wednesday at A$2.92. (david.winning@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 25, 2025 01:01 ET (05:01 GMT)

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