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【券商聚焦】中信证券预计餐食消费能力及消费意愿的恢复仍待观察 成本压力和价格竞争或仍将延续

金吾财讯
Sep 25, 2025

金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，8月社零餐饮收入及限额以上单位餐饮收入分别同比+2.1%/+1.0%，对比7月的1.1%/-0.3%，环比有较明显改善，1-8月分别同比+3.6%/+2.8%，与社零总额增速差额较6-7月明显收窄。按消费类型对比，社零商品零售额8月同比+3.6%、1-8月同比+4.8%，餐饮表现相对落后。2025年8月全国餐食门店总数为812.4万家/环比+0.4万家，供给维持高位，门店店效38.35万元/同比+1.8%，增速边际转正。该机构提到，近期餐饮行业预制菜争议影响较大。根据现行文件，中央厨房加工的净菜、半成品并不纳入预制菜范畴。该机构认为除标准与认知的错位之外，消费者更在意知情权、食品安全与性价比。长期看，预制工艺本质是标准化、工业化的低成本，高效率的生产方式，随着国家标准落地，未来行业将走向合规化、透明化，具备高质价比、强合规性及稳定安全的供应链的头部餐企有望受益。展望全年，该机构预计餐食消费能力及消费意愿的恢复仍待观察，成本压力和价格竞争或仍将延续，且近期行业舆情事件对部分餐企经营或将形成一定负面影响，但该机构认为部分质价比优势突出、具备较强品牌势能的成长性企业或将保持较好发展节奏，成熟的龙头企业有望展现较强的经营韧性。建议关注两条投资主线：1）拓店动能强、发展前景确定性较高的细分赛道领先企业；2）整体经营较为稳健的高股息龙头企业。

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