ChainCatcher 消息，Real Vision 联合创始人兼首席执行官 Raoul Pal 在昨日发布的最新播客中表示，比特币现在是在复制 ISM（美国供应管理协会指数，即“商业周期”）。核心就是：比特币现在跟着 ISM 走，而利率也踩着同样的节拍。2021–22 年财政部把债务加权平均期限从 4 年拉长到 5 年。因此，整个周期被硬生生长出一年——原来的“四年周期”变成了“五年周期”。模型显示 ISM 将在 2026 年见顶；流动性大概率提前触顶，因为 ISM 与流动性的二阶导数（变化的速度）会先拐头。
“我们的猜测是：真正的高点将发生在 2026 年，大概率 Q2。”
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