【苹果季报】新季晚熟即将上市 多空博弈波动加剧

国元期货研究
Sep 27, 2025

策略观点四季度涵盖苹果新季晚熟的集中上市、入库及销售旺季。市场在多空博弈下,将呈现阶段性波动加剧的态势。具体来看,今年陕西产区生长期遭遇大风沙尘和高温干旱天气,导致新季商品率不佳,主要体现在果个偏小,使得收购前期优果溢价效应凸显,新季开秤价预计较去年同期明显走高。但中长期来看,供给端压力与消费端制约将逐步显现。从套袋量来看,今年产量整体持平去年,供给依然较为充裕。消费端则面临结构性分化,水果消费...

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