Epic Sell-off and Turnover Scale, Will the Market see further Pullback?

Blockbeats

Sep 26, 2025

Original Article Title: From Rally to Correction Original Article Authors: Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert, CryptoVizArt, Glassnode Original Article Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News Bitcoin has...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

{"basename":"","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - Tiger Brokers","title":"Tiger Brokers | Global Stocks, Options & Futures Trading App","description":"Tiger Brokers, one-stop investment in US stocks, SGX stocks, HK stocks, A-shares & other global assets. One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","keywords":"tiger brokers,tiger trade,tiger brokers singapore,broker online,stock trading in singapore,share trading singapore,brokerage firm singapore,trading app,stock broker singapore,stock trading platforms,trading account","social":{"ogDescription":"Tiger Brokers, one-stop investment in US stocks, SGX stocks, HK stocks, A-shares & other global assets. One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png","ogUrl":"https://www.itiger.com/news/2570888006"},"companyName":"Tiger Brokers"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2570888006\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2570888006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2025-09-26 20:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2570888006","market":"nz","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Epic Sell-off and Turnover Scale, Will the Market see further Pullback?","media":"Blockbeats","content":"<div>\n<p>Original Article Title: From Rally to Correction\nOriginal Article Authors: Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert, CryptoVizArt, Glassnode\nOriginal Article Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News\nBitcoin has...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/59748\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"theblockbeats_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Epic Sell-off and Turnover Scale, Will the Market see further Pullback?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEpic Sell-off and Turnover Scale, Will the Market see further Pullback?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-26 20:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/59748><strong>Blockbeats</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Original Article Title: From Rally to Correction\nOriginal Article Authors: Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert, CryptoVizArt, Glassnode\nOriginal Article Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News\nBitcoin has...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/59748\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4588","symbol_name":"碎股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/59748","article_id":"2570888006","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"theblockbeats_highlight","url":"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/59748","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2570888006","pubTimestamp":1758888000,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"theblockbeats_highlight","name":"Blockbeats"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Original Article Authors: Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert, CryptoVizArt, Glassnode. Bitcoin has shown signs of weakness after the rally triggered by the Federal Open Market Committee. Long-term holders have realized a profit of 3.4 million BTC, while ETF inflows have slowed down. With pressure in both the spot and futures markets, the short-term holder cost basis of $111,000 is a key support level. A breach of this level may lead to deeper cooling risks.After the FOMC-driven rally, Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, showing market signs of \"buy the rumor, sell the fact,\" with a broader market structure pointing to weakening momentum.After the FOMC-driven rally and the price nearing $117,000 peak, Bitcoin has transitioned into a correction phase, echoing the typical \"buy the rumor, sell the fact\" pattern. In this issue, we step out of short-term volatility to assess the broader market structure, using long-term on-chain indicators, ETF demand, and derivative positions to evaluate w","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"theblockbeats.info","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4162":"人寿与健康保险","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF","ATH":"Athene Holding Ltd"},"translate_title":"史诗级的抛售和成交规模，市场会出现进一步的回调吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,"ATH":1,"FDN":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9},"content_text":"Original Article Title: From Rally to Correction\nOriginal Article Authors: Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert, CryptoVizArt, Glassnode\nOriginal Article Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News\nBitcoin has shown signs of weakness after the rally triggered by the Federal Open Market Committee. Long-term holders have realized a profit of 3.4 million BTC, while ETF inflows have slowed down. With pressure in both the spot and futures markets, the short-term holder cost basis of $111,000 is a key support level. A breach of this level may lead to deeper cooling risks.\nSummary\n• After the FOMC-driven rally, Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, showing market signs of \"buy the rumor, sell the fact,\" with a broader market structure pointing to weakening momentum.\n• The current 8% decline is still relatively moderate, but the realized market value inflow of $678 billion and the 3.4 million BTC profit realized by long-term holders highlight the unprecedented scale of this round of capital rotation and sell-off.\n• ETF inflows sharply slowed around the FOMC meeting, while long-term holder selling accelerated, leading to a fragile balance of funds flow.\n• Spot trading volume surged during the sell-off, and the futures market experienced intense deleveraging swings. The liquidation cluster revealed the market's vulnerability to two-way liquidity-driven volatility.\n• The options market has seen a radical repricing, with skew soaring and strong demand for put options, indicating a defensive positioning, as the macro backdrop suggests an increasingly exhausted market.\nFrom Rally to Correction\nAfter the FOMC-driven rally and the price nearing $117,000 peak, Bitcoin has transitioned into a correction phase, echoing the typical \"buy the rumor, sell the fact\" pattern. In this issue, we step out of short-term volatility to assess the broader market structure, using long-term on-chain indicators, ETF demand, and derivative positions to evaluate whether this retracement is a healthy consolidation or an early-stage contraction.\nOn-chain Analysis\nVolatility Context\nThe current decline from the $124,000 all-time high (ATH) to $113,700 is only an 8% drop (the latest drop has reached 12%), which appears mild compared to the 28% decline in this cycle or the 60% decline in previous cycles. This is consistent with the long-term trend of decreasing volatility, whether between macro cycles or within stages of the cycle, resembling the steady progress from 2015-2017, except the explosive rally phase of its end has not yet emerged.Cycle DurationOverlaying the past four cycles reveals that even though the current trajectory closely aligns with the first two cycles, the peak returns have diminished over time. Assuming $124,000 marks the global top, this cycle has lasted approximately 1030 days, very close to the length of around 1060 days seen in the previous two cycles.Capital Inflow MeasurementAside from price action, capital deployment provides a more reliable perspective.Realized market cap has seen three waves of increase since November 2022. Pushing the total up to $1.06 trillion reflects the scale of inflowing capital supporting this cycle.Realized Market Cap GrowthHistorical Context:· 2011–2015: $4.2 billion · 2015–2018: $85 billion · 2018–2022: $383 billion · 2022–Present: $678 billionThis cycle has absorbed a net inflow of $678 billion, nearly 1.8 times that of the previous cycle, underscoring the unprecedented scale of its capital rotation.Peak Profit RealizationAnother distinction lies in the inflow structure. Unlike the singular wave seen in earlier cycles, this cycle has experienced three distinct, sustained surges lasting several months. The realized profit ratio indicates that each peak profit realization surpassing 90% of the token's move marked a cyclical peak. Just emerging from the third instance of such an extreme scenario, the likelihood leans towards a cooling-off phase next.Long-Term Holder Profit DominanceWhen focusing on long-term holders, the scale becomes clearer. This metric tracks the cumulative profit of long-term holders from the new all-time high (ATH) to the peak of the cycle. Historically, their significant selling has signaled the top. In this cycle, long-term holders have realized a profit of 3.4 million BTC, surpassing previous cycles, highlighting the maturity of this group and the scale of capital rotation.On-chain AnalysisETF Demand vs. HODLersThis cycle has also been characterized by a tug-of-war between HODLers selling pressure and institutional demand through US spot ETFs and DATs. With ETFs emerging as a new structural force, the price now reflects this push-pull dynamic: HODLers profit-taking has limited the upside, while ETF inflows have absorbed the selling and maintained the cycle's progression.Fragile BalanceETF inflows have so far balanced out HODLers' sell-offs, but the margin of error is slim. Around the time of the FOMC meeting, HODLers' selling surged to 122,000 BTC per month, while ETF net inflows plummeted from 2,600 BTC per day to near zero. The combination of increasing selling pressure and waning institutional demand created a fragile backdrop, setting the stage for weakness.Spot Market PressureThis fragility is evident in the spot market. During the post-FOMC meeting sell-off, trading volume spiked as forced liquidations and thin liquidity exacerbated the downward trend. Despite the pain, a temporary bottom was formed near the short-term HODLers' cost basis around $111,800.Futures DeleveragingSimultaneously, as Bitcoin broke below $113,000, open interest in futures contracts sharply declined from $44.8 billion to $42.7 billion. This deleveraging event liquidated leveraged longs, amplifying the downward pressure. While causing instability in the short term, this reset helped clear excess leverage and restore balance in the derivatives market.Liquidation ClustersThe perpetual contracts liquidation heat map provides more insights. When the price dropped below the $114,000 to $112,000 range, dense clusters of leveraged longs were liquidated, leading to a significant number of liquidations and accelerating the downturn. Risk pockets still exist above $117,000, making both sides of the market susceptible to liquidity-driven volatility. In the absence of stronger demand, the vulnerability near these levels increases the risk of further intense fluctuations.Options MarketVolatilityTurning to the options market, the implied volatility provided traders with a clear view of how to navigate a turbulent week. Two main catalysts shaped the market landscape: the first rate cut of the year and the largest liquidation event since 2021. With hedge demand building up, volatility surged ahead of the FOMC meeting but quickly subsided post-rate cut confirmation, indicating that this move had largely been priced in. However, the dramatic liquidation of Sunday night futures reignited demand for protection, leading a volatility rally, which then extended strongly across various tenors.Market Repricing the Rate CutPost-FOMC meeting, there was a pronounced demand for put options as either protection against a sharp downturn or a way to profit from volatility. Just two days later, the market validated this signal with the largest liquidation event since 2021.Put/Call Options FlowFollowing the selloff, the put/call options volume ratio saw a decline as traders locked in profits on in-the-money put options, while others rotated to cheaper call options. Short-term and medium-term options still heavily favored put options, making downside protection relatively more costly compared to upside exposure. This imbalance created an opportunity for participants with a constructive year-end view—either accumulating call options at a relatively lower cost or funding their thesis by selling expensive downside risk exposure.Options Open InterestTotal options open interest remains near historical highs and is set to sharply decline at Friday morning expiration, then rebuild heading into December. The market is currently at an apex where even minor price movements force market makers into aggressive hedging. Market makers are short on the downside and long on the upside, a structure that amplifies selling pressure while limiting rebounds. This dynamic skews near-term volatility risk to the downside, exacerbating fragility until expiration unwind and position reset.ConclusionBitcoin's decline after the FOMC meeting reflects a typical \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" pattern, but the broader backdrop points to a growing sense of exhaustion. The current 12% drop is relatively mild compared to past cycles, but it comes after three major waves of capital inflows that have boosted realized market capitalization by $678 billion, almost twice the previous cycle. Long-term holders have realized a profit of 3.4 million BTC, highlighting significant selling pressure and maturity in this rally.Meanwhile, the previously absorbed supply through ETF inflows has slowed, creating a fragile equilibrium. Spot trading volume surged due to forced selling, futures saw a sharp deleveraging, and the options market priced in the downside risk. These signals collectively suggest that market momentum is waning, with liquidity-driven volatility taking the lead.Unless institutional and holder demand align once again, the risk of a deep chill remains high.Original Article Link\nWelcome to join the official BlockBeats community:\nTelegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats\nTelegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App\nOfficial Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}