高盛:料百威亚太(01876)第三季中国和韩国销量疲软

智通财经
Sep 29

智通财经APP获悉,高盛发布研报称,百威亚太(01876)将于10月30日发布2025年第三季度业绩。该行预计百威亚太在中国市场第三季相较第二季度将进一步放缓,原因包括反奢华政策和补贴推动的食品外送服务导致线上消费显著拖累,而百威在餐饮渠道on-trade(现场即时消费或即饮渠道)有较高曝光度。同时,持续的去库存压力进一步影响销量和品牌组合,并料中国市场的短期EBITDA压力将更大。

高盛预计百威亚太2025年第三季中国和韩国销量疲软,部分被印度的强劲势头、韩国较好的平均销售价格以及原材料成本顺风所抵消。当中,中国市场受政策逆风影响,利润率压力加剧。该行更新外汇对销售的影响,预计集团第三季有机收入下降12.6%,Normalized EBITDA下降15.8%。以美元计,第三季度报告净利润预计为1.58亿美元,相比2024年第三季度的2.01亿美元。

2025全年展望,该行预计百威亚太在亚太东部在平均销售价格上调、有利的品牌和渠道组合转换以及成本效益驱动下,有机EBITDA将增长2.1%。而亚太西部由于持续的营运杠杆下降和渠道组合转换抵消成本顺风,预计有机EBITDA将同比下降11%。

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