金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券表示，地产持续下行，导致地产端需求占比下降，该机构预期地产对钢铁需求的负向拖拽将减弱；基建、制造业端用钢需求有望平稳增长。出口方面，1-8月钢材出口量仍维持同比增长。总体来看，该机构预期钢铁需求有望逐步企稳。供给端来看，行业自2022Q3开始亏损，目前仍有近40%钢企亏损，供给市场化出清已开始出现。政策层面来看，近日发布的《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》提出“继续实施产量压减政策，按照支持先进企业发展、倒逼落后低效产能退出的原则落实年度产量调控任务，促进供需动态平衡”。该机构维持供给端收缩的预期，钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。该机构维持钢铁“增持”评级。长期来看，产业集中度提升、促进高质量发展是未来钢铁行业发展的必然趋势，具有产品结构与成本优势的钢企将充分受益；在环保加严、超低排放改造与碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞争优势与盈利能力将更加凸显。
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