Oklo (OKLO) has re-rated sharply this year and now trades at a stretched valuation, while NuScale (SMR) faces dilution risk tied to its commercialization partner payments, BofA Securities said Tuesday in a report.
Oklo shares are up about 449% year-to-date and 58% in the past month, leaving little room for error after the broker's reverse-discounted cash flow work implied the market is discounting more aggressive deployment than its base case, the report said.
While BofA remains positive on Oklo's vertically integrated, build-own-operate model and Department of Energy-backed first plant, it sees near-term risk/reward as balanced.
NuScale, meanwhile, will need to fund $924 million in payments to partner Entra1 in 2025 and 2026, requiring significant equity raises, the report said. Despite the recent 6 gigawatt memorandum of understanding with Tennessee Valley Authority, BofA flagged risks around timing of commercialization, supply chain build-out, and the pace of customer commitments.
BofA downgraded Oklo to neutral from buy with a $117 price objective, up from $92, and cut NuScale to underperform from neutral with a $34 price target, down from $38.
Price: 112.33, Change: -4.18, Percent Change: -3.59