港股异动 | 铜业股继续飙升,五矿资源涨超8%,全球铜矿扰动事件频发,机构称铜供需平衡表大幅改善

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9月30日,铜业股盘初继续飙升,截至发稿,五矿资源涨超8%,江西铜业股份涨超6%,中国有色矿业涨超5%,紫金矿业涨超4%。

消息面上,近日,自由港宣布旗下印尼Grasberg铜矿因泥石流事故严重破坏开采设施,预计2026年铜产量将下降约35%,较原计划减少27万吨。今年以来,刚果(金)Kamoa-kakula铜矿因矿震减产15万吨,智利国家铜业旗下埃尔特尼恩特铜矿也因坍塌事故停产。美银证券发布研报称,考虑到现时全球三大铜矿均出现经营问题,预计今明两年实际产量将低于原先预期。

华泰证券则表示,2025年以来铜矿扰动事件频发,大部分扰动在短期内解除、导致的供给减量有限。该行表示,展望2026年,预计Kamoa-kakula铜矿与Grasberg铜矿合计造成的供给减量可能达40万吨产量,有望抵消全球铜矿全部增量,铜供需平衡表大幅改善。叠加市场对AI相关基建铺开将驱动铜需求的预期、铜矿扰动频发、全球财政货币宽松环境、金价对铜价有一定拖拽作用,判断铜价行情或启动。

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