金吾财讯 | 华泰证券发研报指，受市场风险偏好提升、资金风格切换影响，中信银行指数自7月高点最大回撤约15%，指数PBlf回落至0.62x，近5年分位数74%；共有37家A股银行跌破半年线、14家跌破年线，部分优质银行25E股息率升至5%以上（华泰预测，截至9/26），重新具备较高配置性价比。随大盘上行斜率放缓，叠加近期经济指标仍待修复，四季度资金或有切换避险需求。结合日历效应：1）2011年以来银行指数在1月跑赢沪深300概率高达79%；2）11月-次年1月为银行中期分红高峰，资金或提前布局开门红与中期分红行情。风格均衡+红利配置影响下，我们认为Q4市场配置需求将有所恢复，银行股短期胜率有望改善。
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