【券商聚焦】中信建投:政策、市场双管齐下 经济性提升促使储能实现爆发式增长

金吾财讯
Sep 30, 2025

金吾财讯 | 中信建投发研报指,136号文促进新能源全面入市,挑战与机遇并存。我国新能源上网电价政策先后经历核准电价、标杆电价、平价上网时期,136号文后将进入全面市场化交易时期。136号文提出机制电价、机制电量手段作为过渡,对增量项目均提出了很高的市场化要求。山东首批机制电价竞价结果相较煤电基准电价折价明显,标志新能源市场化改革进入深水区。政策、市场双管齐下,经济性提升促使储能实现爆发式增长:河北、甘肃、宁夏、山东、内蒙等多省推出容量电价、容量补偿政策,为储能提供了有力的保底收益。同时,新能源进入市场促进各省峰谷价差显著拉大,如山东、山西等省新能源装机容量增长,导致今年以来峰谷价差明显提高。容量电价、容量补偿政策结合市场化峰谷套利,多省储能项目可实现良好的经济性,尤其以内蒙为明显。同时,我们测算光伏项目通过自发配储将电力转移至高电价时段上网,将具备明显的经济性,消纳困难的地区自发配储有望成为趋势。该机构上调储能装机容量预期,建议关注各环节龙头公司。全球储能需求在新能源渗透率提升、储能系统成本价格下降双重驱动因素下同步爆发,国内外储能需求实现共振,带动板块进入新周期。我们上调2025-2027年国内新增装机预测至150GWh、260GWh、380GWh,全球新增装机则可达272、441、642GWh。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10