Hidden risk to Aussie living standards

The West Australian

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Australian living standards are at risk despite households finally getting on top of their finances, Deloitte Access Economics warns.The national economy is tipped to pick up over the next 12 months, ...

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NewsWire/ Monique Harmer Credit: News Corp AustraliaDeloitte Access Economics partner and report co-author Stephen Smith says rate cuts have been central to Australia’s improving living standard.“A single 25 basis point interest-rate cut is worth nearly $1700 a year for the average new borrower,” he said.“We expect real household spending growth to improve from the 1.0 per cent recorded in the 2024-25 financial year to around 2.5 per cent in both 2025-26 and 2026-27, comfortably faster than broader economic growth in those two years.”Mr Smith forecasts three additional rate cuts will lift household spending even further.“Supporting this scenario is a predicted further 25 basis point cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its meeting in December, followed by two more in 2026,” he said.But Deloitte says it’s a gradual recovery, not a boom, with key issues still weighing on the national economy.Australia's Cash Rate 2022Roundtable should go around againIt says Australian living standards remain well below pre-pandemic levels and are likely to remain that way for the best part of a decade, as a lack of reform fails to lift Australia’s anaemic productivity growth.Productivity growth is a primary driver of living standards as it allows for higher wages, lower prices, greater consumption and ultimately more leisure time.Australia’s productivity has fallen from gaining 1.8 per cent a year in 2003 to just 0.8 per cent in 2023-2024.According to Deloitte, last month’s much talked about economic roundtable delivered “no shortage of ideas”, but waiting until 2028 to act on tax or investment reforms aimed at boosting productivity is too late.“The health and wealth of young people in Australia relative to their forebears is a significant and worsening issue,” Mr Smith said.“Efforts to arrest and correct that trend make for good policy.“They also happen to make for good politics – something that was not previously the case.”In order to help increase Australia’s living standards, Deloitte argues, policymakers need to double down on reforms that will lift productivity, beginning with ideas discussed at the roundtable.“On bigger-picture measures, there was recognition of a range of priority areas that Australia needs to tackle,” Mr Smith said.“These include the need for tax reform, better and more efficient regulation, and policies to encourage greater investment.”Camera IconAustralian living standards are not where they should be. NewsWire / Nicholas Eagar Credit: NewsWireThe roundtable is set to “inform the next three budgets,” with about 30 business leaders and economists agreeing on 10 key objectives.They included embracing AI, wide consensus for a road user charge that would hit electric vehicles, and further tax reform, acknowledging that current settings benefited older Australians and punished the young.In the immediate aftermath, the government announced it was removing red tape and abolishing 500 nuisance tariffs, which while welcomed were “modest in scope”, Deloitte said.It took aim at the lack of innovation and initiative that came out of the three-day event.“Many economists felt the Treasurer’s pre-roundtable edict that only ideas with ‘consensus’ support would be considered was far too restrictive,” Mr Smith said.“Almost any meaningful economic reform creates both winners and losers, making true ‘consensus’ impossible.”Trump threat remainsThe Deloitte report also warns of “enormous” challenges from the global economy.They say several decades of supply chains being “knitted together” to reduce costs for households have been unwound while noting populations and plummeting birthrates also smash growth.The Reserve Bank used its statement on monetary policy on Tuesday to also flag the uncertainty in the global economy and how it could impact Australia’s economy.Camera IconRBA governor Michele Bullock said domestic and international pressures led to the board holding the official cash rate NewsWire / Jeremy Piper Credit: News Corp Australia“There is a little more clarity on the scope and scale of US tariffs and policy responses in other countries, suggesting that more extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided,” the RBA monetary board said.“Trade policy developments are nevertheless still expected to have an adverse effect on global economic growth over time.”The RBA warns that such a scenario could lead to weaker labour market conditions in Australia.“The global economy remains a worry and should not be undersold,” Deloitte Access Economics head Pradeep Philip said after Tuesday’s rate decision.“Geopolitics is driving uncertainty and remains little understood; the future drivers of growth, business investment and innovation, continue to languish.“This is the conundrum the RBA is grappling with – holding back rate cuts for too long means growth suffers; cutting too fast brings inflation risks.”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}