US equity indexes ended higher this week as a federal government shutdown in its early days failed to dent risk sentiment, while a so-called AI-trade continued to boost technology amid gains in healthcare.
* The S&P 500 closed at 6,715.79 on Friday versus 6,643.7 a week ago. The Nasdaq Composite stood at 22,780.51 compared with 22,484.2 a week earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 46,758.28, versus 46,247.2 at the end of last week.
* Healthcare paced sectors this week, with Eli Lilly (LLY), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Merck (MRK) among the top gainers in mega-caps whose market capitalization exceeds $200 billion. Drugmakers posted gains after the White House announced a deal with Pfizer (PFE) under the Trump administration's "most-favored-nation" drug pricing policy, with the pharmaceutical giant committing to voluntary price reductions and a $70 billion US investment plan.
* Index-heavy technology was the second-biggest gainer this week, with Micron Technology (MU), ASML (ASML), and Nvidia (NVDA) among the top outperformers on the back of investors clamouring to get on board with the AI-trade. Investors' expectations of a more dovish monetary policy stance in the months ahead also boosted the peer group's fortunes.
* Markets are currently pricing an 85% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower interest rates by an aggregate 50 basis points by December, up from 43% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
* The last federal government shutdown, straddling 2018-19, lasted 35 days and reduced spending by $3 billion in Q4 of 2018 and another $8 billion in Q1 of 2019, Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, said in a note Tuesday. The Polymarket odds of the current shutdown lasting beyond Oct. 15 are at 45%, having stood at 34% at the end of Thursday, according to a note from Deutsche Bank on Friday.
* "The economic costs of government shutdowns are normally minimal unless they last for several weeks," Oxford Economics Chief US Economist Ryan Sweet said in a Tuesday note. However, the shutdown could leave the Federal Reserve uncertain about the labor market, "fueling support for an October cut," according to Sweet.