The stock market might be flying only partially sighted but it still looks like clear skies ahead. Limited economic data and the latest legal decision over the Federal Reserve have investors increasingly confident of interest-rate cuts and continued equity gains.

The ADP jobs report is normally dismissed as an unreliable precursor to official labor market figures. However, the government shutdown means the payroll processing group's figures on Wednesday took the spotlight in the likely absence of the Labor Department's jobs report. And the data were dramatic enough to fulfil the role, showing a deteriorating labor market in September and a downward revision for August.

Bad news for job seekers is good news for a stock market eager for the Fed to keep cutting interest rates. Traders are now pricing in a 99% chance of a quarter-point reduction this month and an 87% probability of that being followed by another in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Cue new highs for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Another factor contributing to market confidence was the Supreme Court's decision that Fed governor Lisa Cook can remain in her job until at least January, in the face of President Donald Trump's bid to remove her. While that might mean rates don't come down as quickly -- with Trump aiming to install a majority of policymakers in favor of sharply lowering borrowing costs -- it also reassures the market about the principle of Fed independence.

The current buoyant mood isn't guaranteed to last -- in the absence of official data, any private-sector reading indicating significant economic weakness is likely to cause turbulence. But for now, investors are enjoying a smooth glide path for stocks even in the face of the shutdown.

-- Adam Clark

***

Supreme Court's Cook Decision Complicates Trump's Fed Plan

The Supreme Court's decision to allow Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook to remain on the job complicates the Trump administration's attempts to gain a majority among the Fed's voting members and thereby wield greater influence over policy. The move is significant for a big decision by the policymakers next February.

   -- The High Court said Cook can stay at the central bank through at least 
      January, deferring President Donald Trump's latest attempt to sideline 
      her, until the administration can make its oral arguments. Trump has been 
      trying to fire Cook since August, and Cook has been fighting those 
      attempts. 
 
   -- Trump appointed three of the current seven board members: governors 
      Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller and recently confirmed Stephen 
      Miran. Gaining Cook's seat would have been a fourth vote. Beyond that, a 
      wider group of 12 voting members including five regional bank presidents 
      sets interest rates. 
 
   -- Regional Fed presidents are appointed by the individual banks' directors, 
      but the Fed board needs to affirm them every five years, and the next 
      decision is in February. Cook remaining appears to eliminate the 
      possibility that a Trump-majority board could reject all of them. 
 
   -- Assuming that the Supreme Court doesn't rule right away, "this might be 
      enough to keep [Cook] on the Board until February, when she could vote to 
      reappoint the Regional Fed Presidents," University of Michigan economist 
      Justin Wolfers said on X. Cook's term runs through 2038. 

What's Next: Trump also has to choose his replacement for Jerome Powell, whose chairmanship expires in May but whose board tenure lasts until 2028. Trump has been considering names and is widely believed to have narrowed his list to three. There may be little reason to further delay naming his pick now.

-- Megan Leonhardt, Matt Peterson, and Janet H. Cho

***

Government Shutdown Showing Signs of Lasting a While

While Republicans and Democrats continued to spar over who caused the government shutdown, attention is turning to how long things could actually stay closed. Prediction markets are putting a higher likelihood of the shutdown spreading into at least next week. Congress also has a complicated schedule.

   -- The Senate won't vote again until Friday. It's the Senate that still has 
      to get a bill passed. The bill has already passed the House, but Speaker 
      Mike Johnson isn't reconvening before Tuesday, which could delay things 
      if the House has to coordinate with a Senate bill. 
 
   -- The prediction site Polymarket puts the likelihood of the shutdown 
      lasting four to nine days at 35%, while it sees a 5% chance of it lasting 
      three days or fewer. Kalshi puts 53% chances on a shutdown lasting 10 or 
      more days, and 32% of it lasting more than 15 days. 
 
   -- One big thing economists are watching is government-generated labor 
      statistics. There won't be a jobs report for September on Friday, nor 
      updated wage data. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics dark, Wall Street 
      and the Federal Reserve are turning to private sources to track the 
      strength of the labor market. 
 
   -- Jefferies analysts warned that the shutdown could prove longer and more 
      disruptive, noting possible delayed IPOs and drug approvals. Short-term 
      market volatility could come in interest-rate sensitive sectors, 
      regulatory-dependent sectors, government contractors such as defense and 
      healthcare companies, and managed care. 

What's Next: One date to watch is Oct. 15. That's the next official date when many federal workers, many of them now furloughed, would usually get paid. The five longest shutdowns in history each began just after or ended just before such a date, note analysts with 22V Research.

-- Joe Light, Nicole Goodkind, and Callum Keown

***

Pool of Publicly Traded U.S. Companies Is Rapidly Shrinking

Despite this year's rush of initial public offerings and multiple record stock market closes, the number of companies in the U.S. stock market is considerably smaller than it was just a few years ago. And investors might see the pool of publicly traded companies get even smaller.

   -- Not only are private companies staying private, more public companies are 
      going private. According to World Bank statistics, the U.S. had a little 
      more than 4,000 publicly traded companies at the end of 2024, down from 
      nearly 8,100 public companies in 1996, the dawn of the dot-com boom. 
 
   -- Videogame publisher Electronic Arts just agreed to be bought for $55 
      billion in a leveraged buyout led by private-equity firms, and 
      human-resources software firm Dayforce plans to go private. 
      Renewable-power firm AES might be bought by BlackRock's General 
      Infrastructure Partners unit for $38 billion. 
 
   -- Going private enables company management to focus less on the short term, 
      when the game is trying to beat quarterly earnings expectations and raise 
      their financial guidance. An increase in federal regulations in recent 
      decades has made it more onerous to be a publicly traded company. 
 
   -- That said, there are still reasons to go public. Trevor Burgess, CEO of 
      Neptune Insurance, told Barron's that the flood insurer wants to maintain 
      control of the company, not be part of a larger carrier. Neptune ended 
      its first day of trading on the NYSE up 24% from its $20 a share IPO 
      price. 

What's Next: Cantor Fitzgerald e-commerce analysts expect to see more go-private transactions by private equity and other investors as interest rates decline from elevated levels in coming quarters. They suggested GoDaddy and Instacart as potential candidates. Neither company could be reached for comment.

-- Paul R. La Monica and Janet H. Cho

***

The Corporate World Is Suddenly Awash in Co-CEOs

Coupling has suddenly become acceptable -- at least in terms of companies having co-CEOs. A concept often thought to be unworkable, co-CEOs have suddenly become all the rage in corporate C-Suites, as evidenced by a flurry of recent announcements.

   -- Comcast (Brian Roberts and Michael Cavanagh) and Spotify (Alex 
      Norström and Gustav Söderström) have announced a shared 
      chief executive role, both effective January 2026, as has Oracle (Clay 
      Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia), which has had co-CEOs in the past. Oracle 
      says they are both CEOs, not co-CEOs. 
 
   -- A number of other high-profile companies have named two CEOs within the 
      past several years, including Netflix (Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters), KKR 
      (Joseph Bae and Scott Nuttall), Monster Beverage (Rodney Sacks and Hilton 
      Schlosberg), and Lennar (Stuart Miller and Jon Jaffe). 
 
   -- There have been some high-profile co-CEO failures. Salesforce twice tried 
      pairing founder and current CEO Marc Benioff, first with Keith Block and 
      then with Bret Taylor. And German software maker SAP paired Jennifer 
      Morgan with current (and now sole) CEO Christian Klein, which lasted from 
      2019 to 2020. 
 
   -- A KKR private equity competitor, Carlyle Group, had success and failure 
      with co-CEOs. Founders David Rubenstein and William (Bill) Conway Jr., 
      led the firm happily it seems from 1987 until 2017. Their successors, 
      Kewsong Lee and now Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, lasted together only 
      two years. 

What's Next: According to research firm Equilar, only 1.2% or 33 of the Russell 3000 companies have co-CEOs, something that has been fairly consistent over the past five years.

-- Andy Serwer

***

-- Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Callum Keown

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 02, 2025 06:39 ET (10:39 GMT)

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