薛鹤翔:铜的未来不是梦

首席经济学家论坛
Oct 08, 2025

薛鹤翔、李野(薛鹤翔系申银万国期货研究所所长、中国首席经济学家论坛成员)摘要2003年、2009年和2020年三次铜的牛市起涨点,均是美联储利率降至低点。美联储低利率往往导致美元走弱,并伴随铜价的走强,呈现的是美元与铜价的负相关性,每次铜价牛市均彰显了低利率时代铜的金融属性。如果以电解铝的供给侧改革为样板,整治国内铜冶炼的“内卷式竞争”,可能将长期限制铜供应增长。随着矿山品位的逐年下降,铜精矿完全...

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