MW Gold's on the verge of reaching $4,000. What's behind its seemingly unstoppable rally.

By Myra P. Saefong

Gold's rally has the 'weight of global uncertainty behind it', says one asset manager

Most active gold futures touched a high of $3,994.50 an ounce on Comex Monday.

Gold's climb to record highs has become somewhat of a steady march this year, but there doesn't appear to be anything that can soon stop the precious metal from reaching the key psychological level of $4,000 an ounce.

What's happening to gold feels "less like bracing for a storm, and more like a plane catching a powerful tailwind midflight," Adam Koos, president and senior financial adviser at Libertas Wealth Management Group, told MarketWatch. The sudden push from $3,000, which gold reached for the first time in mid-March, toward $4,000 shows "how quickly momentum can build when everything lines up at once."

The rally for the precious metal has been fueled by five "strong tailwinds," said Koos. Those are "sticky inflation, geopolitical tension, a weaker dollar, central-bank demand, and investors hedging against volatility."

Market watchers also have noted that record government debt levels have contributed to the resilience of gold's rally this year.

See: Why this veteran investor sees gold hitting $7,000 by the end of Trump's term

"Gold isn't just rallying - it's reasserting itself as the conscience of money," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, in Monday commentary. "The metal that once glittered as insurance now burns as conviction, climbing toward the psychological $4,000 skyline like a rocket testing the edge of its own atmosphere."

The moves feels "more like a confession," with the "global market admitting that paper promises have limits," he added - a reference to the dollar's DXY weakness this year and the large U.S. fiscal deficit.

Gold's advance began well before President Donald Trump began his second term in the White House, but the "political theater" surrounding Washington's latest federal shutdown has given it "fresh thrust," said Innes.

Gold futures rallied on Monday, with their December contract (GCZ25) (GC00) up 1.7% to settle at $3,976.30 an ounce on Comex - notching their 42nd record-high finish of the year so far, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The contract touched an all-time high of $3,994.50 during the session. Prices had only just traded above the $3,000 threshold for the first time on March 13 of this year.

Gold hasn't broken through $4,000 yet, but "it's pressing against the glass with all the weight of global uncertainty behind it," said Innes. This is "no longer a trade about inflation or rates; it's about faith and fear, about the slow corrosion of monetary trust."

"When central banks, funds and individuals all reach for the same ancient asset, it's not a hedge. It's a collective verdict," he said. "In an era of weaponized finance and performative politics, gold remains what it has always been - the last honest weight on the scale."

Jake Hanley, managing director and senior portfolio specialist at Teucrium, said late last week that he expects gold to test the $4,000 level before the month's end, with central banks sending a clear message that "gold is strategic." Global central banks have added to their gold holdings despite record-high prices, he noted.

On Monday, Hanley told MarketWatch that bears have had to get out of the way "or continue to risk getting run over."

While the $4,000 level is important given that "humans love big round numbers," it's also more than just a psychological level, Hanley added: "It's a key extension level based off long-term charts." After gold confirmed a breakout above $2,000 in late 2023, he saw the next target as $4,000.

From the current levels, gold wouldn't need that much of a push to get past $4,000.

That "round number" would "solidify the 2025 gold-market rally as the strongest since 1979," said Aakash Doshi, global head of gold and metals strategy at State Street Investment Management. To keep this rally going, financial inflows would need to continue beyond $4,000 to support the market, he said.

There is a chance for some profit-taking and a pullback, but that would likely be limited to 5% to 7%, and a dip should be bought, Doshi noted. "Positioning in gold has plenty of scope to expand, in our view, and it is not an overowned asset."

Teucrium's Hanley said that, for now, this "bull seems to be charging full steam ahead." But once gold does reach that $4,000 price target, the market is likely to see consolidation as it takes a breather and establishes stronger levels of support.

-Myra P. Saefong

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October 06, 2025 13:56 ET (17:56 GMT)

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