MW OPEC+ agrees to another output hike in November despite growing concerns of glut

By Mike Murphy

Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude slumped last week on oversupply fears.

OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to increase crude production in November by another 137,000 barrels a day, despite rising concerns of a global glut.

The group of major oil-producing countries has been announcing monthly production increases since April, boosting output by a total of about 2.5 million barrels a day through September.

Read more: Why OPEC+ will likely hike next month's oil-output quota - even as prices just posted their biggest weekly drop since June

Before the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia had opposing views, according to reports by Reuters and Bloomberg News. According to those reports, Russia had sought a modest output boost, while Saudi Arabia sought a much larger increase - up to quadrupling production. The Saudis apparently backed down, as the more modest hike agreed upon was the same as October's hike.

U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery (CLX25) (CL.1) rose Friday, but ended the week down 7.4% for its worst week since June, amid expectations for a global surplus of crude over the next year or so. The global benchmark, December Brent (BRNZ25) (BRN00), declined slightly Friday but posted a weekly loss of 6.8%.

Forecasts from the International Energy Agency show that global oil supplies are poised to outpace global demand in 2025 and 2026.

OPEC+'s production hikes have been a tool to both punish some countries that were overproducing oil and to bring down prices in an effort to regain market share from U.S. shale drillers.

OPEC+ cited "steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals" in again raising their output, according to Sunday's statement.

Still, the moves by OPEC+ sound "more like market theater than supply policy," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a note Sunday. Innes noted that while monthly production quotas have increased, actual production has lagged those numbers, as OPEC+ is still "unwilling to flood the market and crater prices."

Traders "still have to price the illusion," Innes said, "and prices whip around in a tug-of-war between expectation and evidence."

OPEC+ will next meet Nov. 2.

Myra P. Saefong contributed to this report.

-Mike Murphy

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October 05, 2025 15:45 ET (19:45 GMT)

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