瑞银报告指，日本自民党选出高市早苗担任总裁，出乎市场预料，大热小泉进次郎的党内团结优先及搁置改革或带来反效果，亦有人相信党内国会议员对世袭交替有戒心而转投其他候选人。若维新会或国民民主党因应高市承诺减税及削减社保供款而给予合作，高市料于本月15日成为日本首相，目前不大可能进行众议院改选，但或需长时间达成正式执政联盟。
瑞银指，高市在选后记者会提及政府须在财政及货币政策上负责任，需求推动通胀对日本经济最有利。基于日央行最新估算，产出缺口仍为负值，意味通胀来自成本而非需求。该行认为日央行本月30日会议后加息因两大不确定性变得更为困难：美政府停摆对经济影响，以及日本新政府“鸽派”货币政策取态，料本月加息机会三至四成。
该行维持日央行明年3月检视工资谈判情况及确认美经济恢复上升后才加息的预测，但若美经济未来数月保持坚韧或日圆疲弱引发政界更大忧虑，日央行或在12月或明年1月加息。但不论如何，该行料日息将升至中性利率，即介乎1%至2%。该行现在预期日央行明年更快加息，基于预期出现的扩张性财政政策及伴随的通胀压力。(fc/a)
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