MW History says bitcoin could peak soon, but here's the case for it to keep climbing

By Frances Yue

We may have reached the end of bitcoin's brutal four-year boom-and-bust cycle, one analyst says

Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $126,000 on Monday.

Bitcoin may hit a peak soon, if its historical pattern of four-year cycles still applies.

The largest cryptocurrency (BTCUSD) was tearing higher on Wednesday, trading just shy of a record reached earlier in the week. A total of 1,052 days have passed since the price bottomed out at $15,591 on Nov. 21, 2022. Back then, the collapse of crypto exchange FTX was sending a shock wave through the broader market for digital assets.

This length of time could matter for the price of the pioneering cryptocurrency, given a pattern that has persisted since bitcoin's launch in 2009. In the past, roughly two years and 11 months have passed between bitcoin cycle lows and cycle peaks. If that pattern holds true, bitcoin's latest peak should be arriving very soon, according to Vetle Lunde, head of research at crypto research firm K33.

From 2015 to 2017, it took 1,069 days for bitcoin to go from the cycle bottom to the top. The interval between cycle bottom and top from 2018 to 2021 period was 1,061 days, Lunde wrote in a Tuesday note.

However, Lunde argued that bitcoin's current rally may run longer than in previous cycles. In fact, the four-year market cycle may no longer apply, he said in a Wednesday report.

Although the time span between bitcoin's trough to its peak averaged two years and 11 months, a complete cycle was longer than that, lasting about four years. Historically, analysts have split bitcoin's price moves into four phases - breakout, hype, correction and accumulation, based on the asset's halving schedule. Bitcoin halvings, which occur about every four years, cut the rewards that miners receive for verifying transactions on the blockchain in half, constraining the supply of new bitcoins.

Nevertheless, during the time that has passed since bitcoin's last bottom, the market infrastructure has evolved as mainstream finance has increasingly embraced cryptocurrencies. A wave of ETFs have launched, and changing government regulations have encouraged wider adoption, Lunde said.

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,272.8 on Monday. It was bitcoin's 11th intraday record high this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The crypto traded at around $123,851 Wednesday afternoon, up 694% from its local bottom in 2022, and up 32.6% year to date.

During the past three cycles, bitcoin saw substantial price gains in the months following a halving event but tended to fall sharply as the effect of the halving faded.

Now the debate lies in whether the four-year boom-and-bust cycle for bitcoin still applies. Lunde thinks the answer is no.

Read: Bitcoin's bull run could defy history and last until 2027, Bernstein analysts say. Why that may be too optimistic.

For one thing, bitcoin ETFs, which first launched in January 2024, did not exist during previous cycles, Lunde argued. They have transformed the dynamic of bitcoin trading, he said.

Meanwhile, the regulatory setup has significantly changed, Lunde said, adding that President Donald Trump has brought about a new era of crypto regulation unlike anything previously seen. Trump has called himself a "crypto president," signed an executive order in March to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve and signed another order in August aiming to allow 401(k) plans to include more alternative assets, including crypto. Such a policy shift marks a stark deviation from policymakers' stance on crypto both during the Biden administration and during Trump's first term in office.

Moreover, the macroeconomic environment appears to be particularly bullish to crypto this time, Lunde noted. Soon after bitcoin reached a cycle peak in November 2021, the Federal Reserve started hiking its key interest-rate target, which weighed on assets that were considered risky, including crypto.

The Fed just cut its key interest-rate target, and investors expect the central bank to continue moving it lower. Traders were pricing in a 79.4% chance that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point cut at each of its last two meetings this year, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool.

Still, Lunde cautioned about a potential short-term pullback. Last week, bitcoin saw the strongest accumulation this year without a clear catalyst, as a combined 63,083 bitcoins were added across U.S. ETFs, futures on CME and perpetual futures, topping the record set in May.

"Historically, similar bursts in exposure have often coincided with local tops, and the current setup suggests a temporarily overheated market with elevated risk of short-term consolidation," Lunde wrote.

However, even if a pullback does occur, it is more likely to be a "buy-the-dip" opportunity instead of a confirmation to the four-year cycle, according to Lunde.

Also read: This crypto investor correctly predicted bitcoin would hit $120K in 2025. He now expects it to double in the next year.

U.S. stocks were trading mostly higher Wednesday afternoon, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA flat, the S&P 500 SPX up 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP up 1%.

-Frances Yue

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October 08, 2025 16:16 ET (20:16 GMT)

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