OBR risks being ‘unreasonably pessimistic’ as Reeves set to be given leeway

cityam

Oct 10

Rachel Reeves could be given a lifeline if OBR downgrades are better than expected. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) risks being “unreasonably pessimistic” if it decides to downgrade ...

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The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) risks being “unreasonably pessimistic” if it decides to downgrade ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/obr-risks-being-unreasonably-pessimistic-as-reeves-set-to-be-given-leeway/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cityam_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OBR risks being ‘unreasonably pessimistic’ as Reeves set to be given leeway</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOBR risks being ‘unreasonably pessimistic’ as Reeves set to be given leeway\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-10 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cityam.com/obr-risks-being-unreasonably-pessimistic-as-reeves-set-to-be-given-leeway/><strong>cityam</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Rachel Reeves could be given a lifeline if OBR downgrades are better than expected.  The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) risks being “unreasonably pessimistic” if it decides to downgrade ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/obr-risks-being-unreasonably-pessimistic-as-reeves-set-to-be-given-leeway/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LFS","symbol_name":"Leifras Co. Ltd.","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.cityam.com/obr-risks-being-unreasonably-pessimistic-as-reeves-set-to-be-given-leeway/","article_id":"2574713261","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/GettyImages-2213423460.jpg?w=824&h=463&crop=1"],"rights":{"source":"cityam_highlight","url":"https://www.cityam.com/obr-risks-being-unreasonably-pessimistic-as-reeves-set-to-be-given-leeway/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2574713261","pubTimestamp":1760101666,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"cityam_highlight","name":"cityam"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Rachel Reeves could be given a lifeline if OBR downgrades are better than expected.  The Office for Budget Responsibility  risks being “unreasonably pessimistic” if it decides to downgrade productivity growth trends by more than 0.1 percentage point, fresh analysis has indicated, in what could hand Chancellor Rachel Reeves some extra leeway at this year’s Budget.The fiscal watchdog is widely expected to downgrade productivity forecasts as part of its supply-side review, basing figures on low productivity levels under the previous Conservative government to the frustration of the Labour government.A downgrade to productivity forecasts by 10 basis points alone could entirely wipe out Reeves’ 9.9bn headroom and risk leading to further tax hikes, adding to higher borrowing payments than expected as well as costs from policy U-turns.But fresh modelling by Pantheon Macroeconomics has suggested that productivity levels have been better than OBR forecasts on some measures.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cityam.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LFS":"Leifras Co. Ltd."},"translate_title":"由于里夫斯将获得回旋余地，OBR面临“不合理悲观”的风险","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"LFS":1},"content_text":"Rachel Reeves could be given a lifeline if OBR downgrades are better than expected.  The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) risks being “unreasonably pessimistic” if it decides to downgrade productivity growth trends by more than 0.1 percentage point, fresh analysis has indicated, in what could hand Chancellor Rachel Reeves some extra leeway at this year’s Budget. The fiscal watchdog is widely expected to downgrade productivity forecasts as part of its supply-side review, basing figures on low productivity levels under the previous Conservative government to the frustration of the Labour government. A downgrade to productivity forecasts by 10 basis points alone could entirely wipe out Reeves’ £9.9bn headroom and risk leading to further tax hikes, adding to higher borrowing payments than expected as well as costs from policy U-turns. But fresh modelling by Pantheon Macroeconomics has suggested that productivity levels have been better than OBR forecasts on some measures. \n\nIt said recent growth data revisions by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) pointed to higher official output-per-hour levels than expected. Economists also said productivity growth’s dependence on the Labour Force Survey (LFS), an “unreliable” measure taken by the ONS, could be looked over. Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak said productivity growth based on HMRC data hit 2.1 per cent on an annual basis in the second quarter of the year, higher than when data from the LFS was used. They also said productivity growth in the second quarter of the year based on both ONS and HMRC payroll data was higher than the OBR forecast while there were signs of optimism for productivity growth to rebound in the coming years.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}