金吾财讯 | 建银国际表示，截至10月13日，H股券商股价同比飙升47%，而A股券商仅上涨10%。自8月25日以来，中资券商股在过去12个月的高位区间内震荡。鉴于日均成交额（ADT）激增，该机构调整了盈利预测，并将H股券商目标价最高上调26%。该机构的盈利模型显示，受证券交易佣金同比增长1.6倍推动，25年三季度（3Q25F）券商行业净利润预计同比增长25%、环比增长27%。这意味着25年前9个月净利润同比增幅将达32%（25年上半年同比增幅为38%）。考虑到24年三季度的高基数，预计25年三季度投资收益同比仅小幅增长6%。鉴于日均成交额（ADT）大幅攀升，该机构上调了25-27财年（FY25F-FY27F）行业盈利预测：25财年上调13%，26财年上调10%。基于当前强劲的运行趋势，将25财年ADT预测上调25%至1.78万亿元，26财年上调46%至1.90万亿元；受ADT上调带动，25财年、26财年佣金及手续费收入预测分别上调11%、16%。据此，该机构预计25财年、26财年行业净利润同比增幅分别为27%、10%。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.