EMEA Morning Briefing: Powell Comments Raise Rate-Cut Expectations

Dow Jones
Yesterday

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

EU industrial production; trading updates from ASML, Entain

Opening Call:

European stock futures traded higher early Wednesday. Asian stock benchmarks were up; the dollar weakened; Treasury yields were down; while oil futures fell and gold strengthened.

Equities:

Stock futures pointed to a stronger open, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made comments that raised expectations for more interest-rate cuts.

Powell left the central bank on track to reduce interest rates again at its meeting later this month, by highlighting weakness in the job market despite lingering concerns over sticky inflation.

He also hinted the central bank could be approaching the end of a more-than three-year campaign to shrink a portfolio of Treasury securities that it acquired to provide stimulus after the 2020 pandemic upended the economy.

Forex:

The dollar lost ground, weighed by U.S.-China trade tensions. China has effectively sanctioned the U.S. units of a South Korean shipbuilding giant, while President Trump warned in a social-media post that the U.S. was considering retaliating against China for not ordering American soybeans.

"We consider the U.S.-China tensions have room to escalate even further, " CBA's Joseph Capurso said.

Bonds:

Investors are starting to see cracks in high-yield-debt pricing, tied in part to a pair of high-profile bankruptcies in the automotive lending space, that could suggest weakness in one of the key planks of the broader equity market rally.

The chapter 11 filing for auto parts supplier First Brands, and the planned liquidation of used-car dealer and lender Tricolor Holdings, have rattled private credit markets and added a new layer of uncertainty into the market for riskier bonds issued by publicly traded companies.

JPMorgan Chase took a $170 million hit from its exposure to Tricolor, and CEO Jamie Dimon suggested the recent bankruptcies could be a sign of more weakness to come.

Energy:

Oil fell amid continuing U.S.-China trade tensions and excess supply concerns. Trump said he was considering terminating business with China related to cooking oil, after China placed restrictions on five U.S. entities linked to a major South Korean shipbuilder and threatened further retaliatory measures.

Sentiment wasn't helped by warnings of a record surplus in the oil market, Sky Links Capital Group said. The International Energy Agency raised its crude surplus estimates for this year and next, projecting a 4-million-barrel-a-day surplus in 2026 as OPEC+ boosts output.

Metals:

Gold rose amid continued frenetic trading, and traders say there is potential for gold to extend gains.

"With ETF flows remaining strong [and] central bank buying expected to be resilient, we feel confident and compelled to update our target prices for gold," said Ben Hoff of Societe Generale. The French bank said it expects gold to hit $5,000 a troy ounce by the end of 2026.

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Iron ore fell in Asian trade, as concerns over supply issues from new port fees in China eased. China-built ships that are U.S.-owned or operated are exempt from paying the special charges, ANZ Research said. The market had been concerned that such fees could hurt bulk carriers that bring iron ore into China, they added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

China, Betting It Can Win a Trade War, Is Playing Hardball With Trump

In its trade standoff with Washington, Beijing thinks it has found America's Achilles' heel: President Trump's fixation on the stock market.

China's leader, Xi Jinping, is betting that the U.S. economy can't absorb a prolonged trade conflict with the world's second-largest economy, according to people close to Beijing's decision-making. China is holding a firm line because of its conviction, the people said, that an escalating trade war will tank markets, as it did in April after Trump announced his so-called Liberation Day tariffs, prompting Beijing to hit back.

The Rest of the World Is Following America's Retreat on EVs

The U.S. retreat from its electric-vehicle ambitions is spreading around the globe.

In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney paused an electric-vehicle sales mandate that was set to take effect next year. In the U.K., Prime Minister Keir Starmer has allowed for a more flexible timetable to hit the country's EV targets. And the European Union last month bowed to pressure from automakers to rethink-a year earlier than planned-its 2035 target for eliminating carbon-dioxide emissions from cars.

Trump Opens New Front in China Trade War: Cooking Oil

President Donald Trump has opened a new front in the trade war with China: cooking oil.

Calling China's decision not to buy soybeans from American farmers purposeful and "an Economically Hostile Act," Trump said on his social media account that the administration was considering terminating business with China having to do with cooking oil and "other elements of trade." He called it retribution.

French Government Moves to Suspend Macron's Signature Pension Overhaul

PARIS-French President Emmanuel Macron is ready to call timeout on his signature pension overhaul to save what remains of his presidency.

Macron's newly reappointed prime minister on Tuesday proposed suspending increases in France's retirement age until after the next presidential election in 2027, a bid to calm a political storm that threatens to take down France's fourth government in less than a year.

How U.S. Pressured Netherlands to Oust CEO of Chinese-Owned Chip Maker

U.S. officials' warning to their Dutch counterparts was stark: If they wanted a Netherlands-based chip maker to avoid being put on a trade blacklist, it would almost certainly have to remove its Chinese owner as CEO.

"The fact that the company's CEO is still that same Chinese owner is problematic," American officials said in a June meeting on the topic, according to a Dutch court document made public Tuesday.

LVMH Sales Pick Up in Ray of Light for Beleaguered Luxury Sector

Luxury giant LVMH, the owner of Louis Vuitton, reported an improvement in sales growth, a sign the sector could be reaching a turning point from a protracted slump in demand that has taken a toll on most high-end brands.

The French luxury-goods conglomerate, which is considered a bellwether for the sector, on Tuesday logged revenue of 18.28 billion euros ($21.15 billion) for the third quarter, 1% higher organically than in the same period a year earlier. In the previous quarter, the group recorded a 4% drop in sales.

Oracle Co-CEOs Defend Massive Data-Center Expansion, Plan to Offer AI Ecosystem

Oracle's new dual chief executives defended the company's massive new investment in data centers, saying it will offer computing firepower and a suite of bundled services that will make artificial intelligence useful for businesses.

"We're really in a unique situation to deliver what we call applied AI," said Mike Sicilia, the former president of Oracle Industries who was appointed as a CEO of the company last month. That includes infrastructure, analytics and applications, he said in an interview.

Bouygues Telecom, Free-iliad, Orange Offer to Buy Most Altice French Assets for $20 Billion

Bouygues Telecom, Free-iliad Group and Orange have submitted a joint non-binding offer to acquire a large part of Altice's telecommunications business in France.

The offer values the assets at 17 billion euros, or about $19.7 billion, the companies said Tuesday. It also implies a value of 21 billion euros for the whole of Altice France.

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Expected Major Events for Wednesday

06:00/ROM: Aug Industrial production

06:00/SWE: Sep CPI

06:00/NOR: Sep External trade in goods

06:45/FRA: Sep CPI

07:00/SPN: Sep CPI

07:00/SVK: Sep CPI

07:00/SVK: Sep Core & net inflation development

08:00/POL: Sep CPI

08:00/BUL: Sep CPI

09:00/EU: Aug Industrial Production

09:00/CRO: Sep CPI

10:00/IRL: Aug Goods Exports and Imports

15:59/UKR: Aug Trade

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 15, 2025 00:07 ET (04:07 GMT)

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