金吾财讯 | 华泰证券发研报指，物流快递：反内卷与旺季共振，看好电商快递2H业绩修复。1）快递：8月虽然是电商快递传统淡季，但反内卷推升行业景气。件量端，淡季叠加产粮区涨价，件量边际放缓；价格端，行业价格环比回升，申通与圆通价格环比涨幅明显。往后展望，伴随旺季到来，涨价延续至年底的确定性较高，看好板块盈利弹性超预期。中长期，社保逐步落地、行业规范化发展有望抬升估值中枢。2）跨境电商物流：航空运价平稳运行，关注4Q旺季表现。3）大宗供应链：“反内卷”推动大宗品价格上行，降息周期开启，板块有望触底回升。
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