Hofflin: We’re buying the stocks you used to love

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Oct 15, 2025

Markets are in full swing. The US market has doubled in three years and investors are acting like the good times will never end. But as Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager/Analyst at Lazard Asset ...

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The US market has doubled in three years and investors are acting like the good times will never end. But as Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager/Analyst at Lazard Asset ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/hofflin-we-re-buying-the-stocks-you-used-to-love\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"livewire_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hofflin: We’re buying the stocks you used to love</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHofflin: We’re buying the stocks you used to love\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-15 04:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/hofflin-we-re-buying-the-stocks-you-used-to-love><strong>LiveWire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Markets are in full swing. The US market has doubled in three years and investors are acting like the good times will never end. But as Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager/Analyst at Lazard Asset ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/hofflin-we-re-buying-the-stocks-you-used-to-love\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK7137","symbol_name":"餐馆","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/hofflin-we-re-buying-the-stocks-you-used-to-love","article_id":"2575655241","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/hofflin-we-re-buying-the-stocks-you-used-to-love","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2575655241","pubTimestamp":1760472034,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Markets are in full swing. The US market has doubled in three years and investors are acting like the good times will never end. But as Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager/Analyst at Lazard Asset Management, points out, the data paints a very different picture.“The US market has doubled in three years. That’s not a normal rate of capital gain,” Hofflin says.Across markets, the valuation gap between the most expensive and cheapest stocks is now the widest it’s been since the dotcom bubble. In Australia, the top 40 most expensive stocks trade at 56 times forward earnings, a record high.It’s a reminder that markets can get carried away, and history shows how painful the comedown can be. After the tech crash in 2000, the NASDAQ fell 80% and it took 13 years for the S&P 500 to recover its losses.While the US has companies genuinely driving the AI revolution, Australia doesn’t. Yet, Hofflin says, we’re behaving as though we do.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7137":"餐馆","JHX.AU":"JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES-CDI","BK7067":"生物科技","BK7124":"保健护理服务","DMP.AU":"Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd","BK7040":"食品零售","BK7501":"新冠治疗股","REH.AU":"REECE LTD","IEL.AU":"IDP EDUCATION LTD","BK7113":"保健护理机构","MFT.NZ":"Mainfreight Limited Ordinary Shares","SHL.AU":"SONIC HEALTHCARE LTD","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数","CSL.AU":"CSL LIMITED","BK7044":"建筑材料","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","PME.AU":"PRO MEDICUS LTD","BK7508":"医药生物股","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK7031":"贸易公司与经销商","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","TMT.AU":"Technology Metals Australia","RHC.AU":"RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LTD","BK7511":"ESG概念","BK7094":"医疗保健技术","WOW.AU":"WOOLWORTHS GROUP LTD","BK7132":"教育服务","BK8027":"航空货运与物流"},"translate_title":"霍夫林：我们正在购买您曾经喜爱的股票","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"JHX.AU":1,"XKO.AU":0.77,"XJO.AU":0.77,"DMP.AU":1,"MFT.NZ":1,"PME.AU":1,"REH.AU":1,"TMT.AU":1,"CSL.AU":1,"SHL.AU":1,"WOW.AU":1,"IEL.AU":1,"XAO.AU":0.77,"RHC.AU":1},"content_text":"Markets are in full swing. The US market has doubled in three years and investors are acting like the good times will never end. But as Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager/Analyst at Lazard Asset Management, points out, the data paints a very different picture.\n“The US market has doubled in three years. That’s not a normal rate of capital gain,” Hofflin says.\nAcross markets, the valuation gap between the most expensive and cheapest stocks is now the widest it’s been since the dotcom bubble. In Australia, the top 40 most expensive stocks trade at 56 times forward earnings, a record high.\nIt’s a reminder that markets can get carried away, and history shows how painful the comedown can be. After the tech crash in 2000, the NASDAQ fell 80% and it took 13 years for the S&P 500 to recover its losses.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n(Source: Lazard Asset management)\nEchoes of the dotcom bubble\nHofflin sees some uncomfortable similarities between today’s enthusiasm for AI and the speculative excess of 2000. Back then, investors chased “new economy” stories in tech, media and telecoms (TMT). Most of those pioneers never made it.\n“None of the themes played out. The market speculated on new technology, but by definition, it’s new - we don’t know who the winners will be.”\nWhile the US has companies genuinely driving the AI revolution, Australia doesn’t. Yet, Hofflin says, we’re behaving as though we do.\nInvestors here have crowded into software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks as a proxy for AI exposure, pushing valuations into nosebleed territory. He notes that Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) now trades on a higher enterprise value-to-sales multiple than red-hot US AI names like Palantir or CrowdStrike.\n“We don’t have AI stocks, but we’re pricing our proxies sky high,” he says.\nFor Hofflin, it’s not just about high prices - it’s about what markets are ignoring.\nEmerging markets like India and Brazil, where there’s little AI excitement, more value orientated companies trading at cheaper valuations, are performing well. Meanwhile, Australian investors are bidding up anything that looks remotely like a tech play, even when the fundamentals don’t justify it.\nHofflin believes one of these markets is wrong - and it’s unlikely to be the ones with cheaper valuations.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nImage: Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager/Analyst at Lazard Asset Management\nThe fallen angels\nThe dispersion story isn’t theoretical. You can see it in the share prices of yesterday’s market darlings - the “fallen angels.”\nHofflin points to a group of nine companies that were once considered bulletproof: \n\nCSL Limited (ASX: CSL)\nSonic Healthcare (ASX: SHL)\nRamsay Health Care (ASX: RHC)\nJames Hardie Industries (ASX: JHX)\nReece Limited (ASX: REH)\nMainfreight Limited (NZSE: MFT)\nWoolworths Group (ASX: WOW)\nDomino’s Pizza Enterprises (ASX: DMP)\nIDP Education (ASX: IEL)\n\nTwo years ago, they were priced for perfection. On average, they traded at double the market multiple. Today, they’ve fallen around 60% from their peaks, with most of the damage coming from valuation compression rather than collapsing earnings.\n“Those companies have all disappointed. They’ve gone from a 100% premium to a small discount. The earnings fell a bit, but the big hit came from the de-rating.”\nIn other words, these were quality businesses that simply got too expensive.\nBuying the stocks you used to love\nWhile investors fled, Hofflin and his team at Lazard saw opportunity emerging. Of the nine fallen angels listed above, they’ve bought five.\nThe most symbolic of those is CSL Limited (ASX:CSL) - a company they haven’t owned in the Lazard Select Australian Equity Fund for more than two decades.\n“It’s the first time we’ve owned CSL in over 20 years,” Hofflin says. “It won’t do what it did over the last two decades, but at a 20% discount to the market, it doesn’t need to.”\nThe others are Mainfreight (NZSE:MFT), Woolworths (ASX:WOW), Domino’s Pizza (ASX:DMP) and IDP Education (ASX:IEL).\nEach tells a similar story - great businesses, temporarily on the nose.\nMainfreight, long admired by Hofflin for its culture and execution, has been hit by the New Zealand recession and global trade softness. Domino’s has collapsed more than 90% from its highs as growth expectations deflated. IDP Education fell from $40 to $3.60, where Hofflin bought in; it’s already up more than 80% since.\n“Sometimes luck’s on your side, sometimes it isn’t,” he says. “But when the valuations stack up, we’ll be happy to buy.”\nThe four they haven’t bought - Sonic Healthcare (ASX:SHL), Ramsay Health Care (ASX:RHC), James Hardie Industries (ASX:JHX) and Reece Limited (ASX:REH) - are still on watchlists. Inflation and wage pressures remain headwinds, particularly for the healthcare names.\nWhat's your 'Plan B'?\nWhile momentum continues to drive parts of the market, Hofflin believes the setup today is as attractive for value investors as it’s been in decades.\n“The starting point for valuation today favours us enormously,” he says.\nHe notes that the spread between cheap and expensive stocks is now wider than at any point in the past 40 years. That creates fertile ground for value investors - but also danger for those holding richly priced names.\nAs Hofflin puts it, every market cycle has its party, but eventually, someone has to drive investors home.\n“At the end of the party, you need somebody to throw the keys to you to drive you home. That’s us.”\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}