At its peak in 2019, Beyond Meat stock was trading upwards of $230, buoyed by enthusiasm for plant-based meat alternatives from health-conscious consumers and investors alike. But that optimism has waned, and that's reflected in the stock price.
Shares fell below $1 for the first time Monday, reaching an intraday low of 85 cents. Beyond Meat was down 23% at 79 cents on Tuesday, putting it on pace for an all-time closing low.
The stock has fallen more than 50% over the past two days, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Shares have been beaten down 77% this year, with the latest slump coming after the company disclosed the initial results of its debt-swap deal first announced in September.
Per the terms of the deal, Beyond Meat will receive $202.5 million in debt due in 2030 in exchange for debt maturing in 2027. The company will issue bondholders up to 326 million company shares. As of Tuesday, Beyond Meat had just under 77 million shares outstanding.
While the transaction would reduce the company's debt load by roughly $800 million, it would increase share count by more than 400%, diluting equity ownership for existing shareholders. Around 97% of the holders of its convertible notes agreed to the terms of the exchange, Beyond Meat said.
While the transaction reduces Beyond's debt principal by 83%, TD Cowen analysts observed that "the company remains financially and operationally challenged" in a note Monday.
Analysts slashed their price target on the stock to 80 cents from $2 and updated their model in anticipation of "significant shareholder dilution resulting from the exchange offer of its convertible notes." The firm rates Beyond Meat at Sell.
Beyond Meat appeared to be set up for success when it made its trading debut in 2019, becoming the first pure play plant-based meat alternative company to go public. That year, its valuation swelled to more than $10 billion, buoyed by celebrity endorsements and a partnership with fast-food chain Carl's Jr.
Despite its first-mover advantage, the company never turned an annual profit. Revenue has declined at an 8% compound annual growth rate for the past two years, TD Cowen noted.
In its most recent quarter, revenue fell nearly 20% year over year, which Beyond Meat attributed to a 18.9% "decrease in volume of products sold."
TD Cowen cited "declines in the plant-based meat category and market share losses," where Beyond Meat faces off with rivals like Tyson Foods and privately traded Impossible Foods.
"It is unclear whether the company can repay this principal, given its rate of cash burn, which we estimate at $92.4 million this year compared to $109.8 million last year," analysts added.