【券商聚焦】中国银河:油价重心趋于回落,关注“银十”兑现情况

金吾财讯
Oct 16, 2025

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券发研报指,9月Brent、WTI月均价分别为67.6、63.6美元/桶,环比分别变化0.5%、-0.7%。供给端,一方面,9月7日,OPEC+八个成员国同意将10月石油产量提高13.7万桶/日,以加快争夺全球原油市场份额。此为该组织连续6个月宣布增产计划,驱动全球原油供应预期上移。另一方面,俄乌冲突仍在反复,地缘担忧情绪升温。9月24日,乌克兰袭击行动导致位于俄罗斯新罗西斯克港口附近的石油装运设施以及终端设备瘫痪,相关设施出口原油约200万桶/日。需求端,原油消费切换至淡季,需求动能预计将环比走弱。截至9月26日,美国炼厂开工率为91.4%,较8月底下降2.9个百分点。参照季节性规律,后续美国炼厂开工率将面临季节性走低压力。库存端,截至9月26日当周,美国商业原油库存量41655万桶,较8月底下降416万桶。当前原油市场在地缘扰动、OPEC+增产、需求环比走弱之间相互博弈,预计10月Brent原油价格将在60-67美元/桶区间偏弱运行。建议后续密切关注地缘局势、OPEC+产量政策、全球贸易争端指引等。预计10月Brent原油价格偏弱运行,油价运行区间参考60-67美元/桶,行业成本端重心或略有下移,“金九银十”终端需求有望季节性走强,推荐民营大炼化、涤纶长丝、改性塑料等板块投资机会。

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