金吾财讯 | 中金公司发研报指，近年来，以红果免费短剧为代表的微短剧平台的兴起加剧长剧的竞争压力，头部长视频平台亦加大降本增效力度。我们判断，长剧产业链下游预算的收紧，一定程度上加速上游供给出清，但也影响主创生存环境的稳定性和创作积极性，对内容创新产生影响。当前，长剧供给侧格局逐步从调整期迈向企稳阶段，结构性提质增效持续深化。从剧集的拍摄备案到发行再到播出上新，整体数量在经历多年出清后自2024年开始已逐渐企稳。精品化：长视频平台逐渐提升独播剧比例，且高度重视会员剧集的转化，内容布局愈发向头部倾斜。类型化：作为年轻女性受众的重要类型，古装剧备案和上线数量经历2019~2022年的低迷后已有回升趋势。为进一步落实广电新规，广电总局亦召开系列会议进行讨论。对于长剧发展而言，我们认为内容创新仍然是重中之重，政策落实为内容创新提供友好的环境，而后续发展关键看内容供给变革后对于用户留存的深刻影响，行业后续或呈现：短期而言，积压剧释放和审核周期缩短促进资金周转；中期而言，持续加强“剧本中心制”，优化成本结构；长期而言，系列化开发加强投产稳定性和IP价值潜力，政策新周期下行业有望实现复苏。
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