【券商聚焦】中信证券：中性情景下预计年底CPI同比读数最高点或有望回升至1.0%附近

金吾财讯

Oct 16, 2025

金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，9月PPI同比跌幅延续收窄，反内卷政策驱动型行业和有色系行业价格的上涨是PPI回升的核心驱动力。反内卷政策受益型行业方面，煤炭加工、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、电池制造、非金属矿物制品PPI同比降幅延续收窄；有色系行业方面，供给侧扰动和美联储降息周期开启双重因素驱动下铜价迎来大幅上涨。但当前工业品价格层面的改善仍然以上游行业为主，中下游行业目前只有局部出现价格顺畅传导（例如光伏设备及元器件行业），普遍意义上的涨价尚未到来。进入四季度“低基数保护”消失后，PPI同比回升路径或偏慢，短期不排除有同比读数阶段性下行的可能性，但预计不会突破今年6-7月的极值。该机构预计，中性情景下PPI同比在25Q3、25Q4将分别录得-2.9%、-2.0%。9月CPI同比读数如期回升至-0.3%，但回升幅度略低于市场预期。核心CPI同比读数连续5个月回升，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到1%，结构上呈现出“耐用消费品和金饰品价格亮眼，服务价格相对疲软”的分化特征。向后看，猪周期错位效应后续将渐次减弱，25Q4的CPI同比有望出现明显回升。中性情景下，该机构预计年底CPI同比读数最高点或有望回升至1.0%附近。

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>表示，9月PPI同比跌幅延续收窄，反内卷政策驱动型行业和有色系行业价格的上涨是PPI回升的核心驱动力。反内卷政策受益型行业方面，煤炭加工、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、电池制造、非金属矿物制品PPI同比降幅延续收窄；有色系行业方面，供给侧扰动和美联储降息周期开启双重因素驱动下铜价迎来大幅上涨。但当前工业品价格层面的改善仍然以上游行业为主，中下游行业目前只有局部出现价格顺畅传导（例如光伏设备及元器件行业），普遍意义上的涨价尚未到来。进入四季度“低基数保护”消失后，PPI同比回升路径或偏慢，短期不排除有同比读数阶段性下行的可能性，但预计不会突破今年6-7月的极值。该机构预计，中性情景下PPI同比在25Q3、25Q4将分别录得-2.9%、-2.0%。9月CPI同比读数如期回升至-0.3%，但回升幅度略低于市场预期。核心CPI同比读数连续5个月回升，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到1%，结构上呈现出“耐用消费品和金饰品价格亮眼，服务价格相对疲软”的分化特征。向后看，猪周期错位效应后续将渐次减弱，25Q4的CPI同比有望出现明显回升。中性情景下，该机构预计年底CPI同比读数最高点或有望回升至1.0%附近。</p></body></html>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【券商聚焦】中信证券：中性情景下 预计年底CPI同比读数最高点或有望回升至1.0%附近</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>表示，9月PPI同比跌幅延续收窄，反内卷政策驱动型行业和有色系行业价格的上涨是PPI回升的核心驱动力。反内卷政策受益型行业方面，煤炭加工、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、电池制造、非金属矿物制品PPI同比降幅延续收窄；有色系行业方面，供给侧扰动和美联储降息周期开启双重因素驱动下铜价迎来大幅上涨。但当前工业品价格层面的改善仍然以上游行业为主，中下游行业目前只有局部出现价格顺畅传导（例如光伏设备及元器件行业），普遍意义上的涨价尚未到来。进入四季度“低基数保护”消失后，PPI同比回升路径或偏慢，短期不排除有同比读数阶段性下行的可能性，但预计不会突破今年6-7月的极值。该机构预计，中性情景下PPI同比在25Q3、25Q4将分别录得-2.9%、-2.0%。9月CPI同比读数如期回升至-0.3%，但回升幅度略低于市场预期。核心CPI同比读数连续5个月回升，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到1%，结构上呈现出“耐用消费品和金饰品价格亮眼，服务价格相对疲软”的分化特征。向后看，猪周期错位效应后续将渐次减弱，25Q4的CPI同比有望出现明显回升。中性情景下，该机构预计年底CPI同比读数最高点或有望回升至1.0%附近。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK0188","symbol_name":"融资融券","start_time":0,"source_url":"1967872","article_id":"2575769880","we_media_id":"1086022552","thumbnails":["https://static.szfiu.com/news/20250106/YTg5NTFiOTlmZmEyYmE3ODE4NjgwNzc4MTUzMTI=.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2575769880","pubTimestamp":1760575775,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"金吾财讯","introduction":"「金吾财讯」以精准用户需求为切入点，打造一站式港美股投资细分领域品牌。依托战略合作伙伴凤凰网财经，将港美股内容传播到全球华人圈。","home_visible":1,"id":"1086022552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c"},"summary":"9月CPI同比读数如期回升至-0.3%，但回升幅度略低于市场预期。核心CPI同比读数连续5个月回升，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到1%，结构上呈现出“耐用消费品和金饰品价格亮眼，服务价格相对疲软”的分化特征。向后看，猪周期错位效应后续将渐次减弱，25Q4的CPI同比有望出现明显回升。中性情景下，该机构预计年底CPI同比读数最高点或有望回升至1.0%附近。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","BK0188":"融资融券","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON 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中信证券表示，9月PPI同比跌幅延续收窄，反内卷政策驱动型行业和有色系行业价格的上涨是PPI回升的核心驱动力。反内卷政策受益型行业方面，煤炭加工、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、电池制造、非金属矿物制品PPI同比降幅延续收窄；有色系行业方面，供给侧扰动和美联储降息周期开启双重因素驱动下铜价迎来大幅上涨。但当前工业品价格层面的改善仍然以上游行业为主，中下游行业目前只有局部出现价格顺畅传导（例如光伏设备及元器件行业），普遍意义上的涨价尚未到来。进入四季度“低基数保护”消失后，PPI同比回升路径或偏慢，短期不排除有同比读数阶段性下行的可能性，但预计不会突破今年6-7月的极值。该机构预计，中性情景下PPI同比在25Q3、25Q4将分别录得-2.9%、-2.0%。9月CPI同比读数如期回升至-0.3%，但回升幅度略低于市场预期。核心CPI同比读数连续5个月回升，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到1%，结构上呈现出“耐用消费品和金饰品价格亮眼，服务价格相对疲软”的分化特征。向后看，猪周期错位效应后续将渐次减弱，25Q4的CPI同比有望出现明显回升。中性情景下，该机构预计年底CPI同比读数最高点或有望回升至1.0%附近。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}