智通财经APP获悉，牧业股集体走高，截至发稿，优然牧业(09858)涨6.71%，报3.34港元；现代牧业(01117)涨4.2%，报1.24港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨1.82%，报0.28港元；中国圣牧(01432)涨1.45%，报0.35港元。
中信建投发布研报称，短期来看，受近两月奶牛存栏去化程度有所放缓的影响，牧业相关标的股价整体有所回调。然而，短期因素不会对周期逻辑本身产生冲击，牛周期之下肉奶共振的逻辑依旧没有改变。向后看，伴随需求的季节性走弱，叠加相关经营牧场主体经营压力的持续加大，奶牛存栏仍将维持去化趋势，原奶周期触底的拐点越发临近。
天风证券此前表示，当前奶牛产能去化或近尾声，Q3青贮收购带来的资金压力可能推动出清边际加速，原奶价格有望触底回升；牛肉价格或迎拐点，但因资金/信心/环保等多重因素影响补栏积极性，其后续涨幅与持续性可能超预期。具备母牛资源或采用“奶肉联动”模式的企业，盈利能力更加突出。建议关注优然牧业、中国圣牧、光明肉业、现代牧业、澳亚集团等。
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