金吾财讯 | 浙商证券研报指，思摩尔国际(06969)公告25Q3单季度收入42亿元（同比+27.2%，下同）、创公司单季收入历史新高，期内利润3.17亿元（-16.4%），经调整利润4.44亿元（+4%，差额为激励费用），表现强于市场预期。 根据公告期内HNB产品出货量大幅增加，glo Hilo 9.1在日本全境推广，从推特上反馈以及专业人士测评来看，好评集中在超快加热、口感接近真烟、气味控制优于IQOS，虽有一些焦糊感/烧纸味，但瑕不掩瑜，产品上市初期收获积极反馈。9月Glo Hilo在波兰上市、后将推广至意大利。根据欧睿，2024年意大利HNB烟支销量142、波兰81亿支，分别为全球第3/5大市场，该机构认为25Q4将环比继续加速。 该机构指，英美烟草在Glo Hilo上资源与营销投入力度较大，除日本销售反馈较好外，在欧洲部分国家也提前做了部署，看好后续放量；此外雾化烟在非法烟监管发力下有望迎来修复，持续看好核心供应商思摩尔国际。该机构预计思摩尔国际25-27年实现营收141.75亿元、166.89亿元、194.95亿元，同比增长+20.14%、+17.73%、+16.81%，实现归母净利润10.80亿元、19.34亿元、26.52亿元，同比增长17.15%、+79.13%、+37.10%。当前市值对应25-27年PE为81.89X、45.77X、33.38X，维持“买入”评级。
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