【券商聚焦】国泰海通：2025年以来市场行情和交易活跃度改善，经纪和投资业绩增长驱动整体业绩增长

金吾财讯

Oct 17, 2025

金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指，2025年以来市场行情和交易活跃度改善，经纪和投资业绩增长驱动整体业绩增长。从上市券商2025Q1-3各项业务收入对营收增量贡献度看，预计经纪业务同比增长对调整后营收增量的贡献最大，为48.32%，主因2025年前三季度市场交易额同比大幅提升。同时投资业务对调整后营业收入增长的贡献为38.14%，主因是权益市场相较2024Q3收益率在高基数下仍然边际提升。

预计2025Q1-3上市券商业绩较高基数下保持快速增长，归母净利润同比+58.63%。1）我们预计42家上市券商2025Q1-3调整后营业收入（营业收入-其他业务成本）同比+32.02%至3954.84亿元，归母净利润同比+58.63%至1651.47亿元。2）其中，2025Q3单季调整后营收1481.51亿元，环比/同比+11.45%/+27.15%，归母净利润611.3亿元，环比/同比17.94%/+48.74%。继续看好配置力量（含居民资金入市）+业绩改善双轮驱动带来的投资机会。1）增量资金入市持续推进。7月11日，财政部对保险公司实施“5+3+1”的考核方式（ROE考核从“当年+3年”、资本保值增值率考核从当年，转变为当年权重30%，3年权重50%，5年权重20%），将推动保险公司提升权益仓位，利好低估值高ROE的蓝筹股。2）在居民资金入市背景下，建议关注三季度业绩弹性较好的标的。

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