Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】中泰证券维持中国财险(02328)“买入”评级 指前三季度利润大超预期

金吾财讯
Oct 17

金吾财讯 | 中泰证券研报指，中国财险(02328)发布2025年前三季度业绩预增公告：预计净利润同比将增加约40%到60%，对应净利润中枢达401.26亿元，考虑到同期利润基数较高且已大幅超过此前该机构年度累计利润预期（330.90亿元），对应9M25非年化ROE达14.4%。该机构预计9M25公司务综合成本率分别为96.0%（9M24：98.2%，同比下降约2.2个百分点），对应承保利润达153.01亿元，同比增长137.5%。预计9M25公司非年化投资收益率达4.8%（9M24:4.4%），主要得益于权益市场大幅回暖所致，总投资收益同比增长25%。该机构提到，近期金监总局发布《关于加强非车险业务监管有关事项的通知》，该机构假设《通知》落实后，降低除农业保险、出口信用保险外的非车险业务1个百分点的承保综合费用率水平，静态对应2024年可增加承保利润约13.51亿元，占税前利润约3.6%，关注后续承保费率和实际费用率对承保业绩的改善持续性。因三季报预增中枢已超越此前该机构的盈利预测，该机构结合承保投资两端优化上调盈利假设。该机构预计2025-27年归母净利润为401.07、396.55和414.16亿元（原预测330.90、353.89和369.38亿元），同比增速为24.7%、-1.1%和4.4%，公司兼备高股息红利和景气度上行的特征，估值有望进一步释放，维持“买入”评级。

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