【券商聚焦】中信建投:中短期2025-2026年或将迎来政策落地期的板块轮动 关注养老托育补短板等领域机会

金吾财讯
13 hours ago

金吾财讯 | 中信建投发研报指,中国民生政策历经多阶段演进,在“十四五”规划确立增进民生福祉、迈向共同富裕的全面福祉导向。“十四五”期间多数民生指标推进良好,但托育服务供给不足、养老服务床位总量短缺等短板突出。当前民生领域面临三大核心挑战。一是居民收入预期不稳,受房地产市场回调的负财富效应及城镇就业结构性压力影响,居民预防性储蓄动机强化,消费对经济拉动作用受限。二是基本公共服务均等化不足,存在质量断层、群体盲区、碎片化梗阻等问题。三是老龄化与少子化交织,老龄化推高医疗、长期照护需求,现有服务供给缺口明显;少子化加剧托育供需矛盾,加重地方财政民生支出压力。针对上述挑战,“十五五”规划预计将聚焦六大重点领域破局:扩大普惠养老托育供给,构建社区嵌入式养老网络、推动幼儿园开设托班;推动高质量就业,破解青年就业结构性矛盾、完善新业态劳动者权益保障;优化收入分配,提高劳动报酬占比、深化个人所得税改革;强化社保公平可持续性,推进养老保险全国统筹、发展多层次社保体系;升级医疗健康体系,推动优质医疗资源下沉、深化三医联动改革;夯实教育强国根基,实现义务教育优质均衡、促进职业教育产教融合。对资本市场而言,中短期2025-2026年或将迎来政策落地期的板块轮动,重点关注养老托育补短板、基建价值链后移等领域机会;长期则围绕大健康与大保育经济、人力资本服务业、新型消费与家庭服务三大主线,相关领域龙头企业有望实现价值重估。

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